Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Victor Martinez

For some reason, all the projections for Victor claim that he’ll perform worse than he did last year. CHONE goes so far as to predict that he’ll post a .284/17/84 season. If this happens, you’ll see bandwagon Red Sox fans jump off faster than Dave Roberts dashing for second base. But isn’t Victor one of the few run producers in this lineup? Wouldn’t a guy who will be hitting behind Ellsbury and Pedroia post more than 84 RBIs in a full season? In 56 games with the Red Sox last year, he hit .336 with eight homers and 41 RBIs. In 38 career games at Fenway, Martinez has hit to the tune of a .963 OPS. I think he’s due for more of the same this year.

The downside: Truthfully, he’s the only scary bat in the Red Sox lineup. The days of the Ramirez/Ortiz one-two punch are over. I think we’re going to see opposing teams take the bat out of Victor's hands if the guys hitting behind him struggle at all. “Who are we going to pitch to, the guy with a .900+ OPS or David Ortiz and his .600 OPS? Hmmm ...” If it takes the opposing manager more than .000003 seconds to signal for “four wide,” he should be fired on the spot.

The bottom line: I am on the Victor Martinez bandwagon. When my pick rolls around in the third round, I’m probably going to talk myself into him. I think he’s comparable to most of the third-round bats available. My only worry is that he’ll go two picks in front of me and I’ll have to talk myself into someone like Justin Morneau. He’ll probably split time at catcher and 1B/DH, so he’ll likely need fewer rest days than years past. He’s only had one season under 140 games played and that was his ridiculous two-homer 2007 season. He’s as durable as catchers get with a better bat than all but one. I could see a .300/100/25 season in the heart of this Boston lineup.

Player who will make me fist pump because he’ll go two rounds earlier than he should: John Lackey

It’s never a good thing when a fan base celebrates a player leaving. Angels fans that I spoke to were actually happy they didn’t re-sign John, and I can’t say I blame them. Other than his fantastic 2007 season, John has been, well, better than mediocre ... but he’s not an ace and he’s not worth ace money. He’s also starting to develop an injury history. He’s missed time in each of the last two seasons due to arm issues. Free agent pitchers with arm issues rarely work out. I don’t think he’s going to be as motivated to pitch through the pain as he was before he signed the $85 million contract. Also, His K/9 has been in decline since 2005. I take that as a sign that his stuff isn’t what it was. I think he’s a stay-away given the fact that someone will probably take him in the seventh or eighth round just because he’s on the Red Sox. I’d rather wait a round or two and take someone with a lower injury risk. He’s the kind of guy that could miss two months with tendonitis.

The upside: He should get wins and he should post an ERA in the mid to upper 3’s with a solid WHIP, assuming he stays healthy. He’s never posted ridiculous K numbers and seems to be settling into a range of 130 to 140. His WHIP has been remarkably consistent. He’s been in the mid 1.2’s since 2006.

The bottom line: He’s going to go earlier than he should and will more than likely not perform up to his draft position. Starting pitching is as deep as it was last year. Look for other options in the 10th through 12th  rounds instead of jumping on Lackey in the seventh or eighth.

Player who no one is buying but should: Mike Cameron

I wanted to use this spot for J.D. Drew but couldn’t talk myself into it. The more time I spend looking at this Red Sox roster, the more I think they’re in for their worst season in 11 years. A lot of these guys are who they are. I don’t really see any breakouts or career years on the horizon. Cameron is the best I can do for a legit sleeper. Alarm bells should be ringing. There is nothing likable about drafting Mike Cameron and I’m not necessarily telling you that you should. But I do think he’s a name to remember for the season. He’s the baseball equivalent of Jamal Lewis. Cameron will hit over 20 homers, have a chance at double digit steals and post a terrible average. That’s who he is. Do I want him for a full season? No. Would I draft him in a 12-team mixed league? No. Would I draft him in a 20-team man’s league? Possibly. Do I think he’ll have a hot month or two and be worthy of a roster spot if I need an outfielder? Absolutely. Would I stream him in a deep league? With a gun to my head, yes. He’s usually awful in April, so stay away for the first few weeks. But as the weather warms up, so does Cameron. Also, Boston has little outfield depth. Bill Hall is their only backup that is remotely competent. Cameron is going to play whether anyone likes him or not.

The downside: This is Cameron’s age-36 season. He’s been around forever. I was a freshman in high school when he started his career with the White Sox. His MLB odometer has 1,800+ games on it. At some point, he’s going to stop being productive. He also signed a surprisingly big contract during this past off-season. (Two years, $15.5 million. Nice done, agent to Mike Cameron!) Job security and age could factor into a decline for Cameron.

The bottom line: He’s not even a little sexy. He is who he is. The homers and steals will be there. If you need outfield depth in the late rounds -- an extra outfielder in an AL-only league or warm body in a super deep league -- you could do worse than Cameron.

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles

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