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Written by Matt Dewoskin
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Friday, 26 February 2010 03:54 |
Player that will make me punch the screen when he's drafted in front of me: Robinson Cano
I am all-in on Robinson. I'm loving him in the fourth round, but I'm concerned that he's going to start shooting up draft boards. In 2009, he obviously liked hitting in the new ballpark, but I don't think his improved numbers are a direct result of the park. He posted a .900+ OPS at home, but he still managed an .832 OPS on the road. I think he's matured as a hitter. His K rate was under 10% (9.9%, but still ...) for the first time in his career and his GB/FB ratio was a career low. I think that would indicate that he's doing a better job of driving the ball instead of hacking and slashing. Cano is also incredibly durable. In the last four seasons, he's missed exactly six games. That's a guy I want on my roster.
The downside: For some reason he reverts back into 2008 Cano and is essentially a league-average second baseman. I don't want that guy in the fourth round. I want the guy with the .871 OPS and the 100+ runs scored. Honestly, I don't see much downside. Barring injury, he's a lock for 80/80 with double-digit homers and a solid average. That's his downside. The only concern here is that he's never figured out how to draw a walk, but he doesn't strikeout much either. He's the anti-Adam Dunn. He puts the ball in play with regularity. Also, he's never stolen bases and he never will. Don't look for help from Cano in the stolen base department. If I draft him, I'd try to pair him with a speedy SS to give my infield some balance.
The bottom line: I think I want him over Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts, but it's a tossup between Cano and Dustin Pedroia. Personally, I want Cano, but I could see the argument for Pedroia. Cano is a solid pick in the fourth, a great value in the fifth and a "you're doing this to spite me" in the thirrd round. He has a shot to end the year as the second best second baseman in fantasy behind Chase Utley and could be a top 20 pick next year if he's able to improve on his 2009 season. I'm riding shotgun on the Robinson Cano bandwagon. Good seats are still available. All the projections like him for a .800+ OPS. I like him for more than that. I'm not going to call it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he touches 30 homers with 100/100 run production.
Player that will make me fist pump when he gets drafted two rounds too early: Jorge Posada
If there's one Yankee I'm not drafting -- other than Joba; I've just been burned too many times -- it's Jorge Posada. He's a 38-year old catcher (turning 39 in August) coming off a 20-homer, 81-RBI season. I don't think he repeats those numbers, and I don't think he's worthy of a 10th or 11th round pick. I'd rather wait a round and draft Miguel Montero. If I had to set the over/under on games played by Jorge, I'd probably put it around 115 and I'd bet the under. Catchers do not age like fine wines. They age like cheese. Once they reach a certain age, they just go bad. I think Jorge is about to hit his expiration date. He's the fifth catcher off the board after Matt Weiters. What, exactly, is the thought process there? "I missed the young guy with upside, so I have to get the oldest, creakiest catcher available." Does that make any sense? I guess the thought process is that you know what you're getting in Posada. He'll crack double-digit homers with a solid average and reasonable run production from a catcher. Great. Miguel Montero should be able to do about the same, but he's going 20 picks later.
The upside: Jorge becomes Ponce de Leon and finds the fountain of youth. He hits 20 homers with solid run production and a good batting average, but he still only finds his way into 120 games.
The bottom line: Jorge's K% was the highest it's been since 2002. He struck out over 100 times in only 438 plate appearances last year. His BB/K ratio was the lowest it's been since 2001. I think his bat is slowing. The one plus I see here is that there's literally no one behind him. The Yankees have Mike Rivera and a player named "Cervelli" as their backup catchers. As long as he's healthy, ol' Jorge will get at-bats, but if there were a catcher that I would bet on getting hurt, Jorge Posada has the worst odds by a large, large margin. If the goal is to win your fantasy league, pass on Jorge. The only way Jorge is the fifth catcher drafted is if all the services with live drafts have him ranked too high and the guy who doesn't show up for the draft gets stuck with him. You might as well let the guy who didn't show up for the draft get Jorge and take Miguel Montero in the next round.
Player that no one is buying, but should: Nick Swisher
I actually really like Swish as a late-round/outfield-depth guy. He's all the Yankees have in right field, and he's being drafted after such MLB legends as Chase Headley, Carlos Gomez and Jermaine Dye. I honestly think he'll outproduce all those guys. I would have no problem with Swisher on my roster as a backup/fifth outfielder. He'll deliver solid run production with 20+ homers. Yes, his average will likely suck, but at that point in the draft, everyone's average is going to suck.
The downside: Joe Girardi falls in love with Marcus Thames and benches Swish like he did in the World Series. Swish is only happy and producing when he gets regular at-bats. The White Sox found out what happens to Swisher when he's asked to ride the pine in 2008. It wasn't pretty. Swish has played 150+ games for the past four seasons. He's durable, and I don't think there's any injury concern. The only downside is the batting average. If you draft Swisher, be prepared for a batting average in the .230 to .240 range. It could/will happen.
The bottom line: If I'm in an OPS league, I want Swisher in my outfield and I might even take a reach on him in the 17th or 18th round. If I'm in a league that counts batting average, I make sure I have a couple guys who are known for high batting averages before I put him on my roster. He doesn't come without warning. The average will be ugly, but the power and run production could be beautiful. The projection systems all have Swisher hitting over 20 homers with a batting average below .250. They also have him producing between 75 to 87 runs and 69 to 80 RBIs. I don't see why a 20+ homer season with 80/80 production is out of the question. You could do worse in the 20th round.
Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins
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