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Written by Erich Smith
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Friday, 19 February 2010 18:20 |
Overall, drafters tend to look at whole-year numbers from the previous season when deciding who to draft. But by looking at the just the second half numbers, you can often find guys who are undervalued and set to excel. A few things can contribute to lower all-around numbers; maybe the guy didn’t play much before the break because he was injured or buried on the depth chart, or was uncharacteristically bad and was able to turn it around near the end, just not enough to make his entire season look the way it should have on paper.
There are, admittedly, small sample size issues with these numbers. There are also guys who just seem to hit a different gear after the All-Star Break each year -- ala Ryan Howard and Adam LaRoche – and you take a chance that one or more of the following could simply be second-half performers. There are plenty of reasons for this “second season” phenomenon, and while you shouldn’t turn your draft strategy on its head and take simply the guys listed below, it’s a nice way of finding value where others might not see it. Below you’ll find a list of one guy at each position who either lived up to expectations at the end of the year, or who really turned it on during the months of July through early October.
C: Miguel Montero – Montero was mired in a timeshare to start the season, even though most scouting reports had him as the better backstop option in Arizona prior to the season. When he finally got the bulk of the at-bats he ripped it to the tune of .316/.366/.534 in the second half, with 11 homers and 40 RBI in 65 games. In 2010, he’s the undisputed #1 catcher for the D’backs and should be ready to jump up the catcher position rankings this season.
1B: Kendry Morales – I can remember Peter Gammons talking years ago about how this guy was the next big thing back when he was a teen in Cuba. It took him a while to finally match the hype dumped on him way too early, but he showed signs from the beginning of last season. Add in the fact that his OPS went from a very good .867 in the first half to an even better .989 in the second, and you have the making of a breakout that can still be a considered little under what he really accomplished last season. He hit .330/.375/.614 on the way to 19 homers and 59 RBI in 70 games, which if doubled looks a lot nicer than the great season he put up for ’09.
2B: Jose Lopez – I don’t know why this guy gets so little love. He’s got decent pop at a position that offers very little and is young enough that he can still improve and get better. After noticing he hit .290/.320/.500 with 13 homers and 45 RBI and raised his OPS from .716 to .820 in the second half, it’s even harder for me to see why he’s still so low on a lot of 2B rankings.
3B: Gordon Beckham – Most people know the name, with him being one of the upcoming stars of the new decade and all. He’s gets a lot of respect for his defense all over the diamond which obviously doesn’t help us, but looking at his second half when he raised his OPS over 80 points and hit 11 bombs while knocking in 43 and you have a pretty solid fallback option with good upside if you miss out on a hot corner stud.
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera – He really doesn’t qualify for this in the way that most do; he had a really nice year all around and the power numbers won’t jump off the page like most of these guys. But he did improve over the second half and made a sizable gain to his OPS along the way. If anything, now that he’s settled into one position, he should be primed to continue developing his bat. Don’t expect much in the way of power, but double digits there and in SBs should be nice for a guy who can be nabbed fairly late in most drafts.
OF: Jay Bruce, Denard Span, Nolan Reimold – I’ll give you three here, because every league plays more than one OF, and there are a few guys worth mentioning. Bruce didn’t play a whole lot in the second half (just 18 games), but he’s worth noting because, after coming back from a supposedly power-sapping wrist injury, he absolutely crushed the ball, putting up a triple-slash of .326/.426/.652. The average will go down because of the strikeouts, but it’s good to know his power didn’t leave. Span saw his OPS go from .769 to .845, and now that Carlos Gomez is gone, he should be in the lineup every day and hit near the top of a very good Twins offense. Reimold came out of nowhere and just kept hitting all season and was even better into the dog days when most young guys get exposed. His .299/.394/.487 triple-slash would have looked extremely impressive if he would have done that for the full season.
Next time I’ll give you five starters and a couple closers who had second halves of note.
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