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Looking at two varying projection systems -- PECOTA and CHONE -- in relation to their forecasts for the 2010 season can bring some eye-opening results. If you've never looked into it before, the two systems are computed a little differently. From what I can find, CHONE uses past performances weighted toward recent seasons with an aging curve added in, while PECOTA uses historical player matching -- finding similar players from past eras -- and then later is manually adjusted. There are a few really good projection systems out there. None really that much greater than the others, but narrowing these two will hopefully offer us some good fantasy insight when contrasting them.
It's possible we can look more into their deviations as a kind of a regular feature as we lead up to the 2010 season. Here today, a quick glance at who they see blasting 30 or more bombs this year. PECOTA sees 18 players doing this, and CHONE projects 13. There are of course similarities in both lists, but they do differ quite a bit when you break it down. I’ll be looking at the ones they agree on, some sleeper candidates, as well as the notable differences.
First up are the guys that show up on both lists, and there are nine of them: Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Albert Pujols.
It looks like the safest bets are likely to be Fielder, Howard, Rodriguez, Pujols, Teixeira, Braun, and Cabrera (and not solely because of the projections). You can’t find too much fault in taking any of these guys with your first round pick, depending on where you draft. Of these safer guys however, Howard is the only one projected to hit at or under .270 by both lists and moves to the back of the pack for me with this minor gash in his armor.
Best Values: Dunn and Pena. Both projections like these guys, though their batting average knocks down their draft value. I don’t see that much difference between them and Howard, yet you can get these guys much later. Both are nice options if you end up going with more balanced guys with your first picks and need to find a solid power source later.
The differences in the lists are noticeable too. Here are a couple more guys that can help you in the power categories depending on which system you believe in more.
Sleeper, CHONE: David Ortiz. This one’s pretty bold in my opinion. Based on the injury setbacks and what he has done since Manny left town, I don’t feel as confident he can get back to crushing on this level again. Although he definitely has a history of being a great power source when everything is right.
Sleepers, PECOTA: Chris Davis and Jake Fox. Davis has fallen out of favor with a lot of people based on his disastrous ’09. It was especially bad if you bought all the pre-draft hype and took him in a single-digit round last year. This season he’s still somewhat of an enigma, but no one doubts the power is there. It just looks like he doesn’t do anything else well enough to justify taking him. And that’s not even mentioning the fact that Justin Smoak placed yet another impressive year under his belt and could replace Davis at any point.
Jake Fox is much like Davis in that he can hit for power but might not do much else to help your team. Despite Davis’ precipitous fall from grace, Fox seems like he’ll still cost considerably less than any of the guys mentioned in this piece. Based on that I’d say he’s worth drafting to see if he’s given a full time job, as it’s likely he’ll offer decent pop if given the chance.
Notable omissions, CHONE: Justin Morneau and Evan Longoria. If healthy, there’s little doubt Morneau has the ability to be right around 30, and CHONE probably docks him a bit due to his recent time missed. Longoria missing out looks to be tied to the fact that the projection gives him just 484 ABs in 138 games, numbers I think he could easily surpass. He’s the best hitter on that team right now, so it’s not like they’ll be batting him sixth or anything either.
Notable omissions, PECOTA: Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Bay. Maybe PECOTA takes park factors into account? These are two boppers who should be considered 30 homer bats, but will just miss being that in 2010 if we consult Baseball Prospectus’ projection. I don’t think this is anything to downgrade them significantly over, because I imagine if Gonzalez is ever freed from PETCO, he could jump into 40-homer consideration. We don’t have enough data on Bay’s new home yet, but going off last year, it looks like the park might work against him getting back to where 30 homers is a given.
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