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Long-term readers by now should know our first-round philosophy: You can't win your fantasy baseball league in the first round, but sure as hell can lose it. Just ask all those schmucks who took Josh Hamilton last year. With that said, you still need to decide which "sure thing" to take with your first pick. Let's take a look at how 2010 drafts might unfold using the Mock Draft Central's current top 12, ranked by average draft position, and then discuss whether it should go down that way ...
1. Albert Pujols -- MDC users are drafting Phat Albert first overall, and, really, if you're picking first, you have no choice but to take Pujols. Yeah, yeah, I know ... we've been talking about his ticking-time-bomb of a right arm since this site was founded. One day it's gonna blow, and I'd hate to be the fantasy manager owning him when it does. But Albert's 2009 stats were so sick, so dominant (47 HR, 135 RBI, 1.101 OPS, 16[!!!!!] SB), that all you can do is click the dude's name on draft day and pray it doesn't happen this year. As long as he stays healthy, Pujols is the premier fantasy-team anchor.
2. Hanley Ramirez -- Some may be tempted to take A-Rod here, and I wouldn't blame them. Despite the slow start last year thanks to injury, Rodriguez looked like his old self by September, as well as in the playoffs, while Hanley's steals have dropped from 51 to 27 in just two seasons. Still, Hanley remains the consummate five-tool player, and at a thin position, no less. He crossed the 100-RBI mark for the first time last year. No worries drafting him second overall.
3. Alex Rodriguez -- If your top two go Pujols and Hanley, you must take A-Rod here. Dude had his worst season ever last year and he still hit 30 dingers and drove in 100 runs. Don't get cute by looking elsewhere.
4. Chase Utley -- Utley's 2010 stats are unlikely to be any better than the next six guys on this list, but the thing is, he plays second base. The rest of them are outfielders or first basemen, making Chase the more valuable get. I don't have a problem with passing on Utley here, but if you do, make sure you have at least three sleeper second basemen identified and targeted for later in the draft. If that sounds like too much work for your lazy ass, just take Utley.
5. Ryan Braun -- This is where I take Matt Kemp. But Kemp is officially my new man-crush (having replaced that infernal Jose Reyes), as just thinking about him can cause me drift off, goofy smile on my face, while I'm supposed to be having dinner with the wife. But you argue that Braun had the better stats last year ... and you'd be right. So go ahead and take Braun. Tis a good pick. And it means I have better shot at Kemp falling to me!
6. Mark Teixeira -- Tex is a solid top-eight pick, but, truthfully, I'd rather have Prince Fielder. (Last year's stats bear this out. Fielder had seven more home runs, 19 more RBI and the better batting average.) I'm going to guess that Teixeira's being drafted higher only because of those two fucking letters on his cap.
7. Matt Kemp -- You mean if I pick eighth I'm not going to get Kemp?! Shit! I just want to use this space to remind everyone that Kemp did all that damage last year with Torre bouncing him around shitty spots in the batting order. This year, he should be locked into a prime spot, probably third. It can only help.
8. Prince Fielder -- If power's your thing, you could get away with taking Fielder as high as fourth. I wouldn't mock you for it. Dude just keeps getting better. (Again, take him instead of Teixeira.)
9. Miguel Cabrera -- Miggy's weight goes up and down, his position changes but the production stays the same. Just remember he's fully a first baseman now and no longer eligible at third. And as far as first baseman go, I like Cabrera a little less than Howard.
10. Ryan Howard -- And conversely, I like Howard a little more than Cabrera. The 45 home runs and 141 RBI he posted last year were astronomical numbers. Just remember, if you do take Howard here, make sure you target hitters with high batting averages in the next few rounds.
11. Evan Longoria -- Not only does Longoria still play the hot corner (giving him added value), but he actually topped Miggy last year in runs, RBI and SB. (He hit only a single home run less.) The reason he's picked two sports later is because his batting average was 40 points below Cabrera's, which is not an insignificant number. If you're a Tampa Bay fan, or if your gut tells you (as mine does) that Longoria's numbers are going to keep getting better, go ahead and confidently draft him 10th.
12. Tim Lincecum -- We tell you every year: Don't draft a pitcher in the first round. Don't draft a pitcher in the first round. And here is Lincecum being drafted en masse in the first round. It actually makes some sense, largely because of the huge dropoff in player quality after Longoria. The next two guys on this list have huge question marks perched on their heads. And what are your options past that? Ian Kinsler? Eh ... injury prone, shitty batting average last year. Matt Hollliday? I'll kindly pass on the sub-25 home runs. Thus, Lincecum is indeed the safest pick in this spot. Me? I'd still rather gamble on a hitter.
13. Joe Mauer -- If we were guaranteed that Joe Mauer would do just 85 percent of what he did last year, I'd give you the green light to pick him 12th. Those kinds of numbers from a catcher are absolutely sick. The problem is it's hard to believe that last year was for real. Mauer had never hit more than 13 home runs in a season before knocking 28 last year. His '09 average was nearly 40 points higher than it had been the year before. Those numbers have got to come down, right? Right?!
14. David Wright -- If I'm picking 12th, I take Wright without thinking very hard or very long about it. Yes, last year was a disaster. Yes, you're going to be screwed if you draft him and he hits only 10 home runs again. But I have to think that the guy whom Bill James once called baseball's best all-around player is going to bounce back. Wright was a consistent top-five pick for four years running. Now that you have a chance to steal him at the end of your first round, do you really want to let one bad season scare you away?
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