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Editor's Note: Response to my Help Wanted post has been tremendous, and I'm still going through submissions from wise souls carrying an itch to write about fantasy baseball. One such person was Erich Smith, whose inaugural post for the Hurler you'll find below. Erich knows his stuff and will make an excellent addition to our staff. Feel free to leave a comment and give him a warm welcome. --Bob
We all have our preferences. Whether they’re personal favorites, guys from our home teams, or someone we picked of the scrap heap prior to a breakout, there are certain players we personally identify as targets going into a season. In those cases, it’s understood that you’ll be willing to pay a little more to be able to have their performance on your team. Outside of that though, fantasy players and the industry in general are not immune to groupthink, and certain players can see their value rise simply based on a few kind words from fantasy experts.
Everything in fantasy is tied to value. After the first few rounds (or top auction players) are gone, managers should be drafting players based on what they feel the player will bring to the table and not to just make sure they have the “it” guys for the season. I see much too frequently managers stepping far over the risk/reward line to nab a guy who’s been labeled the “next big thing.” And in these instances they get routinely, as the player fails to deliver proper value for the money or draft slot (even in the 30 or so percent where these players deliver the breakout season projected/wished upon). The following guys are seeing their names on far too many sleeper, top 20, and breakout lists for the upcoming season. By drafting them where they will almost certainly go, you will be passing up on better values and dooming yourself to the bottom of the standings. Do you feel lucky, punk? I’d advise you to try and take as much luck as possible out of your drafts. That probably means skipping these guys entirely:
Joe Mauer -- Having the top catcher can make you feel warm inside. I mean, hey, you just nabbed the top guy at a position where most folks will be starting someone who hits like Omar Vizquel in his good years. (Those were still bad by the way). That was okay and defensible when the top catchers came off the board in the late third to fifth rounds in drafts where talent tends to tail off a bit. This year, however, J-Moww will be going in the second round (and, in some drafts, the first) meaning you will be passing up on huge talent to get him. I’ll put it like this: Is the difference between Mauer and Brian McCann or Victor Martinez that much greater than having Prince Fielder over Kevin Youkilis? I’d say no. Factor in that last year he hit almost as many home runs than the previous three years combined, and you, sir, will be paying for the breakout season, never a recipe for fantasy success.
Mark Reynolds -- He doesn’t have the contact skills to ever hit above .270 without some serious BABIP luck, even though the power is certainly legit. The stolen bases were nice, except that, once you factor in his success rate, there’s a good chance he won’t get to that number (24) again. There’s a reason he’s received the nick-name “Mini Donkey” -- the guy is pretty much the new Adam Dunn. He won’t be the next guy joining the 40/40 club, but it seems like people are betting he’ll at least get close. When you look at the fact that you can get Dunn (or similarly Carlos Pena) some 60 picks later, it’s absolutely ridiculous how high he’s going. “But he plays 3B, which is shallow this year” you say. And I say to you: Grab Troy Tulowitzki who plays at an even shallower position and is more likely to sustain the numbers he showed us last year.
Brett Anderson -- So I’ve given you two guys who “broke out” last year. And a lot of you know you never pay for the breakout year. So allow me to switch gears here. Anderson’s got everything going for him. Nasty stuff, a great repertoire, a good ballpark with decent defense behind him, etc. So how can he make this list? Well, here we get into the hype factor discussed above. I’ve already seen him on probably ten sleeper lists. By the time the major providers open their gates on Fantasy Baseball ’10, this guy will be hyped to the point where it will be very difficult for him to return a solid value. There’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be an ace if he’s not already well on his way there, but there are bound to still be a few bumps left in his road. Depending on a 22-year-old to lead your staff is risky business, and I reckon this Texan will be going in the top 25 pitchers by the time the season rolls around. As I said, it’s entirely possible he’ll deliver for those that take the gamble, and for this reason I guess he’d make a good selection in a keeper or dynasty league. But if you’re looking to get the most value out of your picks and to minimize risk where possible, I’m betting there will be more than a handful of guys more reliable at a similar draft position in March.
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