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I've now seen more than one fantasy site pushing Geovany Soto as a good comeback pick for 2010. I ain't buyin' it. Some may say this is because he bit me in the ass in the Hurler league last year, and fantasy managers tend to avoid players who have burned them in the past. Could be a little truth to that. But the bigger reason is this: Soto's only had two good offensive seasons in his entire pro career -- in 2007, at Triple-A Iowa (1.076 OPS, 26 HRs) and in 2008, his rookie year with the Cubs (.868 OPS, 23 HRs). In no other minor-league season, from 2001 through 2006, did he reach double digits in home runs. In only one of those years did he hit more than six. His highest single-season OPS over that stretch was .756.
 Then, suddenly, he got his shit together and posted a monstrous 2007 campaign at Iowa and followed it with his ROY campaign in Chicago. Easy come, easy go, however, and Soto started 2009 with a positive marijuana test at the WBC, dealt with a few injuries over the course of the season, and finished the year with a final stat line that, much like the sun, is too painful to stare at for more than second or two (.218 AVG, .381 SLG). People were asking, "What went wrong?" And some (mostly Cubs fans) tried to ease the pain by saying it was the injuries that did him in or pointing to SABR-riffic stats like BAPIP to prove that he was just unlucky.
But I'm more inclined to look at '07 and '08 and ask, "What went right?" And that question I really can't answer, as it's a eternal mystery why certain players are able to break out for a season or two, only to revert to their Bruce Banner-like forms soon after. (And I'm not one for accusing guys of getting a little chemical assist. There's no evidence Soto ever messed with anything other than the ganja.) So what we're left with is this: Soto has hit well in two professional seasons out of nine, he seems somewhat injury prone, and he's not so focused on baseball that he's going to turn down some really good weed when offered. (There was also a decent bit of grousing out of Chicago last year that Soto was overweight and didn't pay much attention to his own conditioning.)
As long as he stays healthy, his numbers will improve in 2010. (It would be near impossible for them to get any worse.) But I don't see Soto rebounding enough to make him worth being the eighth catcher off your draft board, which is where Mock Draft Central has him being taken. Among the players being drafted later are Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli, both of whom I'd rather have than Soto.
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