Rounds one through three were kind of boring. Round four is where things start to get interesting. Notice that I'm not mentioning every player being drafted regularly in these rounds. You can assume that I believe those unnamed players (the Justin Morneaus and Brian McCanns of the world) to be solid picks -- nothing spectacular, but nothing that's going to kill your team, either.

PLAYERS TO TARGET:

It'll be difficult for Ben Zobrist to again reach his lofty '09 heights. But the lineup he hits in is good, and in daily leagues, it's hard to argue against that 2B/SS/OF eligibility, even if the numbers drop a bit. As far as pure second baseman go, I believe Robinson Cano absolutely can repeat his '09 successes. (I'm certainly taking Cano over Brandon Phillips)

Curtis Granderson will probably bat second for the Yankees. The sky's the limit here. Bill James is predicting a 106-27-76-17 season, which is more than doable in that lineup. He's being drafted, on average, in the fifth round. I don't think it's a terrible move to grab Curtis in the fourth, just to make sure he's on your team. Hell, you could probably take him in the late third and still not be laughed out of the room. If you don't get Granderson, Andrew McCutchen is an awesome five-tool consolation prize you can likely snare in the sixth round.

Jason Bay tore the shit out of of American League pitching last year, hitting a career high 36 home runs and driving in 119. Now he's back in the NL, where he's been successful before (playing for the Pirates, no less). The Mets lineup is shaky, but if Wright and Reyes revert to form and Beltran can get healthy, Bay should have the guys hitting around him to do some damage.

Jayson Werth finally got to play a full year last season and made the most of it with a 98-36-99 line. Not sure if he'll match those numbers in 2010, but the dude hits in that mighty Phillies lineup and is in a contract year. Good signs.

Late round four/early round five is when you can seriously start thinking about drafting some starting pitching. Dan Haren and Justin Verlander are both good picks here and excellent choices to anchor your fantasy rotation. (I like Verlander a little more, BTW, even though he's being selected later.) Johan Santana is also in the mix here, and while I don't think he ever reaches 230+ strikeouts again, the guy says he's healthy and still the best pitcher in his division. I want to believe. A bounce-back would deliver 16+ wins and 205 Ks, which is excellent fifth-round value.

Glancing up at our northern neighbor, I'm confident Adam Lind can post numbers similar to what he put up last year ...

PLAYERS TO AVOID:

... and I'm equally convinced that Aaron Hill can't.

Brian Roberts is 32 years old and dealing with a herniated disk. You can't count on this guy for more than 30 stolen bases this year. Speaking of steals, Jose Reyes will go in the fourth, and despite my torrid past mancrushes on the guy, I'm avoiding him altogether in 2010. The hammy issues are now officially recurring, which is never a good thing for a guy whose entire value is in his legs. (For the record, though, if the nature of your draft demands you take one of these two guys, I'd gamble on Reyes.)

Aramis Ramirez, Bobby Abreu and Michael Young are a combined 99 years old, and their best days are almost certainly behind them. It's kind of obvious with Ramirez, who was only good for 306 ABs last year and is a DL stint waiting to happen. Abreu and Young, on the other hand, were both productive last season, but that doesn't make them any more trustworthy. Young hit 22 home runs and batted .322 in '09 but I'd expect those numbers to look more like 12-.295 this year. Abreu, meanwhile, went 15/30 last summer, but those will likely come down, too. CHONE's 14/19 prediction seems about right to me.

A look at rounds seven through nine is coming soon. Tell your friends ...

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