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Most fantasy draft guides break players down by position. And when they're all mixed together, it's usually in a nondescript Top 100 list. I wanted to try something a little different this year, so for the next week or two I'm going to be breaking fantasy drafts down by the individual round. (Or, more accurately, by chunks of individual rounds, assuming a 12-team league.) Every year, I encourage our readers to hold their fantasy drafts as late as possible, but enough early draft results are in that we can begin to see which players are being draft when. Utilizing Yahoo's current Average Draft Position rankings as a reference, I'm going to use these Draft Breakdowns to suggest players worth targeting at their current ADP, as well as point out guys you'd be best served by avoiding altogether. Let's get this party started with rounds one through three ...
PLAYERS TO TARGET:
Most of the round-one guys are gimmes, so there's no need to name them here. Although I will say that if you have the eighth overall pick or later and Prince Fielder is still available, for god's sake, man, grab him. His current Yahoo ADP is 14th overall, which is ludicrous. Troy Tulowitzki is the first guy who I'm really curious to see where he goes in my leagues. Last year, he put up the kind of numbers you dream about from your shortstop, and Yahoo users are currently taking him ninth overall. That seems a tad early, but I've got no problem with jumping on him at any point in the second round.
A lot of managers are going to need to decide between Justin Upton and Matt Holliday. I'm feelin' Upton this year. I'm also fine with drafting Jacoby Ellsbury as a one-stop steals shop. Many roto experts hate counting on a single player to secure the steals category, largely because if that guy gets hurt, you're screwed. (Just ask a manager who owned Jose Reyes last year.) But I figure, what's life without a little gamble? If you draft a big steals guy and he does come through for you, you'll be crushing in that category without having to sweat it, which allows you to focus your attention elsewhere. Also, Ellsbury hit .301 last year, which is, like, good and stuff.
David Wright and Grady Sizemore are interesting bounce-back candidates. It seems Wright has more doubters than Sizemore, which surprises me a little. Anytime you can get a top-six pick from the previous season in the second round, you'd be wise to at least consider it. Hell, I'm sure there are a few folks out there planning to take Wright late in the first and Sizemore early in the second, figuring there's a chance they'll end up looking like a total genius. (Possible alternate scenario: They just blew their '10 season before the third round even started.)
Lastly, Joey Votto is going to win fantasy leagues for people this year. I'm sure of it. Do not hesitate to take him in the third round. Hell, I might draft him in the second in an OBP league I play in.
PLAYERS TO AVOID:
If you draft Joe Mauer in the first round, you need him to repeat his 2009 numbers, and almost no one thinks he's capable of doing that.
The Carl Crawford bandwagon drove by my house the other day, and I shouted obscenities at it from my porch. (I don't trust his health, I don't trust his consistency, and his second-half numbers sucked last year.) Also, never spend a second-round pick on a pitcher who's had exactly one great year. So pass on Zach Greinke. As a matter of fact, do yourself a favor and don't draft any pitcher in these rounds. So go ahead and cross out Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter and Felix Hernandez, too. (Although, if you absolutely must have an elite starter, I'd go with Sabathia early in the third.)
Kevin Youkilis should only be drafted in the late second/early third if you live in Boston and are drunk off your ass. Ichiro Suzuki might hit .350 again, which makes him a borderline third-round pick. Or he might hit .305, which makes you a fantasy loser.
I'll be back in a day or two with a look at rounds four through six. Yap about rounds one through three in the comments below ...
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