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Written by Erich Smith
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Thursday, 04 March 2010 08:40 |
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Going back to a previous post contrasting CHONE and PECOTA, we were able to find some nice value windows when looking at the guys each system projects to hit 30 home runs. A few looked to be safe bets for power production, and a few more were either undervalued or deep sleepers for you to grab later in your draft should you decide to pass up on the guaranteed performers. Since speed is usually the hardest element to find in fantasy, it only makes sense to continue the projection comparison to find the same elements in regard to stolen bases.
Most speed guys come at expense to other categories. The majority of speedsters are slap-hitting, dink-and-dunk guys who derive most of their baseball value from their wheels. So it's important to preface the following list(s) with one note worth remembering. Find the speed guys that won't kill you elsewhere. You want these guys to contribute in more than category, even though you're looking for them to excel in one specifically.
Consistencies: Contrary to our look at home runs, there seems to be a lot more agreement here. Each projection gives us exactly 15 30-steal players; 11 of the 15 show up on both lists. Jacoby Ellsbury leads both projections, but there are more similarities than just that, as they also agree that Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, and B.J. Upton should be at or above 40 SBs for 2010. Those are your sure bets, and the high draft pick each will cost is due to the fact that they can help you in a few areas besides just pumping up your steal totals. I like Crawford and Reyes the most from this foursome, Reyes really only has to get back to his established levels to provide nice value; he used to be considered for the first overall pick, now he's a late-second/early-third rounder. Crawford fell apart at the end of '09, but I have a feeling he won't do that this year. He's playing for a contract, which always seems to be a little added incentive for guys. Maybe I was also influenced a bit by his recent appearance on ESPN, where he seemed to find out what was causing those late-year caught steal attempts. If he can consistently be what he was before the break last season, he could easily lead the league in SBs. He provides more pop than Ellsbury and a similar average, yet goes about a round later in drafts.
The rest of the guys who appear in the top 15 of both PECOTA and CHONE: Elvis Andrus, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Bourn, Chone Figgins, Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, and Willy Taveras. Hanley's a no-brainer top-two pick. Nothing more needs to be said of a guy with an unquestioned power/speed combo at the shallowest of all positions. Of the rest, I do like Figgins and Pierre here. Figgins is getting work at 2B this spring which would be a nice value booster should he be able to gain eligibility there during the year. Pierre doesn't do much good, but he can hit for average and has been a consistent top base stealer despite not really having a job for a couple of years. He'll play everyday for the ChiSox and goes super late in drafts making him a nice value. Andrus is a nice upside choice if you miss a more solid SS, but his OBP scares me a little. It's tough to steal second when you can't get to first. If his approach improves, he'll be huge at his position, so the risk/reward is something worth noting but also worth going for where he's taken. Bourn's approach has gotten better, but until he gets his OBP over .350 consistently he'll likely provide nothing more than his steals for your team. In a five-OF league he might get more consideration, but I wouldn't want that void sucking up a spot in a league where I only had three starters. Davis is getting some nice pub based on the recent kind words Rickey Henderson had for him, but there are so many OFs in Oakland that I can see a few times during the year where he's riding pine for chunks of time. Willy Taveras makes Michael Bourn look like a patient hitter, and because of this I wouldn't touch him with a ten-foot pole even if he does find himself in a situation where he's given a good amount of playing time -- which is definitely not a given.
Notable Omission, CHONE: Brian Roberts. They have him down for 29 so this might be splitting hairs, but they must see something most PECOTA doesn't. (BP's projection has him down for 41.) I think B-Rob could get 30+ in his sleep even if he's losing a step. Add that to the fact that he's been the most consistent fantasy 2B this side of Chase Utley. He's as solid - and unspectacular - as they come. Not a sexy pick, but a safe one.
Notable Omission, PECOTA: Julio Borbon. On the flip side of Roberts, Borbon is on everyone's "sexy picks" for 2010. He'll start in CF for Texas and may lead off, providing good run value along with a average in the decent to better-than-decent range. It will be interesting to see how many chances he gets, because he hasn't had an elite success rate at any stop, and if he's hitting ahead of Kinsler and Hamilton it won't benefit the team to have him running into outs a third of the time.
Sleeper, CHONE: Darin Mastroianni. Yeah, me too. A CF "prospect" with awesome wheels and very, very little else, "The Mastro" (I just created that nickname to avoid having to type Mastroianni again) has no scenario where he sees enough play time to grab this many bags (36) outside of a major injury, possibly two. File the name away though, because if those injuries happen and you're desperate later, you might need to take a flier.
Sleeper, PECOTA: Brett Gardner. Another instance of picking nits, as CHONE likes him for 29. (CHONE has six 29 guys, possibly to avoid going out on a limb, or maybe to just keep the number of 30-steal guys down.) I like Gardner quite a bit for where he's drafted. He should see enough playing time to best his 26 steals from last season. Granderson still has a big time split, getting the majority of his production when facing right-handers and Gardner should "steal" some time there when the Yankees face lefties on the mound. There's also the chance that Randy Winn at his advanced age won't play every day and Swisher will bounce around; either way there will be enough opportunity for ABs here. You'll be pleasantly surprised to have him as your fourth OF in an AL-only league, a spot where he propelled me to a championship last season.
Bonus! Notable Omission, BOTH: Nyger Morgan. He's on a lot of sleeper lists for his speed, but he's liable to disappoint. He'll play; and possibly more than last year, but there really isn't the upside you might expect here. Morgan's another no-pop speedster, and you're better off taking someone who is more established, if that's what you're looking for. I think I'd rather have everyone listed in this piece (outside of The Mastro) over seeing the name Nyger Morgan next to one of my OF spots for the 2010 season.
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