Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Miguel Montero

I really like Miguel this year. I think he has a chance to out-produce guys like Matt Weiters and Jorge Posada. Both Matt and Jorge are being drafted 30 to 40 spots ahead of Miguel. Montero started getting regular PT after Chris Snyder went on the DL in late June and he won the starting job. Can you say Wally Pipp? Montero and Snyder are scheduled for a lefty/righty platoon with Montero getting the majority of the at bats. Montero hit .326 with 13 homers in 343 at bats against righties.

The downside: The platoon. The idea of me taking Montero and watching Chris Snyder gets all the playing time has me worried. The most bearish prediction on Montero is CHONE, which has Montero hitting 14 homers with 43 RBIs and 54 runs scored. CHONE also has Chris Snyder getting over 300 plate appearances. It makes sense that it's the most bearish.

The bottom line: I'm a fan of finding a catcher with some pop and leaving him in the catcher slot unless something goofy happens. Names like Napoli, Iannetta and Montero will make there way onto my rosters. As long as they're not hurt, they'll be in my lineup. The projection from the Bill James system is the most bullish. That system has him blasting 18 homers with 63 RBIs and 69 runs. I'm fine with that production from a catcher. He's also one of maybe eight catchers that have a shot at delivering an .800 OPS. Montero showed more than enough in his first extended look at the major league level to be worthy of his ADP. I'm fine with taking him in the 12th or 13th round, but I'm concerned that he won't be there for me. I think that talk of Miguel getting a new contract is going to have him shooting up draft boards.

Player who will make me fist pump when he gets drafted two rounds too early: Justin Upton

In early February, JUpside was being taken in the top 30. It's now mid-March, and he's going in the top 10. What changed? I'll tell you. Perception. A few of the rags mentioned him as a sleeper or a breakout cantidate and his draft stock started shooting up. I've seen him drafted ahead of Matt Kemp. I think that's silly. How often have owners been burned by taking the sexy name instead of the solid name? What happens in draft rooms is that everyone wants to look intelligent and pull a name that no one else is thinking about. To some owners, getting others in the draft room to type "NICE PICK" in the chat is more important than drafting a good team. I'm willing to look stupid if that means I get the best team I can. Take Upton in the first round, and you'll probably get the "NICE PICK" comments. But I don't think you'll get a league title.

The upside: I'm not going to lie. If JUpside stays healthy, he's a lock for a 20/20 season with a .280ish average and solid run production at the minimum. The max is that he's the next elite fantasy outfielder. He's called JUpside for a reason. He could be a solid producer in every category.

The bottom line: He could be a solid producer in every category and he should have a long career as an elite fantasy producer ... but there's no guarantee that it happens in 2010. Every year, there's a first round pick that disappoints. Every year. Last year, it was the Josh Hamilton experience. This year, JUpside is the name that sticks out to me. All the projections like him for an .850+ OPS, but CHONE and Marcel have Upton for only 70/70 run production. Curious.

Player who no one is buying but should: Conor Jackson

You read it here first. Conor Jackson, 2010 fantasy sleeper. He's one of the few players that is almost guaranteed to be more productive than he was in 2009. He missed almost the entire season with something called Valley Fever. After a run on the 60-day DL and a failed rehab attempt, it sounds like he's fully recovered. He's going to be batting near the top of the order in one of the more potent offenses in the NL. He'll likely be batting next to Justin Upton. I think some of JUpside's positive energy should rub off on Jackson. Catching JUpside energy is much better than catching Valley Fever. I've never seen anyone miss most of a season because of JUpside.

The downside: He's been predictably mediocre for most of his career. He's posted a solid average with double-digit homers and 60ish RBIs and runs. Ho-hum. Assuming he stays away from whatever causes Valley Fever, he should, at a minimum, post similar numbers. Marcel is the most bullish on Jackson, but Marcel is only predicting 316 plate appearances.

The bottom line: I'm going with my gut on this one. I think he's a breakout candidate, and Jackson is probably going to be on more than a few of my fantasy teams. No one is buying Jackson. According to MDC, he's only being drafted in 12.5% of leagues. I think he could be one of the early guys plucked off the waiver wire. In his last healthy season, he posted double digit homers and stolen bases with solid run production and a good average. I'm willing to ignore the problems he had in 2009, and I think he'll be close to 2008 numbers with a chance for a breakout in power.

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays

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