|
Player that will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Jay Bruce
Power is at a premium this year, and Jay Bruce is one of the last 30-homer upside guys left on the board around the 10th/11th rounds. Given a choice between a speedster or a thumper, I want the thumper. I think we're in a different fantasy climate in 2010 than we were in 2005 or 2006. Power is a premium again instead of a guarantee. When guys were injecting each other with horse adrenaline, power was a little easier to find in the late rounds and speed was more of a premium. Now that players are laying off the needles, homers aren't as plentiful. Jay Bruce is one of the few guys in his draft tier that has legit power. I've got him in the same draft tier as Denard Span, Julio Borbon (and his massive Julio Borboner), Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn. One of these things is not like the other.
The downside: He never realizes his considerable potential. I think last year is his downside. He'll still hit 20+ homers, but he'll fail to drive in 60 and could post a really ugly batting average. Marcel is by far the most bullishon Bruce. Marcel is predicting only a 21 homers and 59 RBIs with a .254 average. Nick Swisher scoffs at that projection and says, "I can do that." So, Bruce's worst case scenario is Nick Swisher's normal season.
The bottom line: Bill James has a ridiculous prediction for Jay Bruce. I have no idea what that system is seeing. Maybe someone forgot to carry a one or carried a one too many times. Thirty-eight homers with 98 RBIs and .274 average, oh, and double-digit stolen bases. I like Jay more because of his draft position and his power than the chances that he becomes a legit fantasy force in 2010. If I can add 30+ homer potential in the middle rounds, I'm going to do it. The concern is that some meathead GM chooses to draft guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first two rounds and decides to add a thumper in the eighth or ninth round. There's also a chance for a WTF?! pick with Bruce. I could see an owner taking a ridiculous reach in the sixth or seventh round on Bruce Almighty. I think my eyes would roll out of my head if someone actually did that. His BABIP was down around .221 last year. That's almost 40 points off his career average. I don't think he's going to hit .220 again in 2010.
Player that will make me fist pump when he gets drafted two rounds too early: Joey Votto
I'm over the Joey Votto hype. Every available projection has him hitting fewer than 30 homers. None are expecting Joey to top 100 runs or RBIs. Why is he being drafted in the top 30? I've seen Joey go as high as 13th in mock drafts. I've seen owners that I viewed as reasonably intelligent discussing Joey in the top 10 in mixed leagues. I don't get it. He's a good hitter and he plays in a great hitter's park, but is he a top 30 player? Is he a better fantasy option than guys like Youkilis? Morneau? Adrian Gonzalez? I'm not so sure and I don't think he should be drafted like it.
The Upside: He turns into The Natural and goes after the Triple Crown. I've seen owners discussing this like it's possible, so I'm mentioning it. If JUpside and JVotto fought, who would win? Well, I think it's obvious. No matter who wins, we lose. I guess his upside is that he cracks 30 homers with a .320ish average while driving in 100 and scoring 90 runs. Yeah, that's pretty good.
The bottom line: Everyone mentions Votto's anxiety and depression issues like they're no big deal. As recently as last month he was still talking about how he's taking things "day-to-day." I think these are still serious issues and I don't want to speculate on the possible fantasy impact. All I'm going to say is that I hope Joey can get better and be the player we all think he can be. What I will say about Joey's health is that he's been snake bitover the last few seasons. He seems to pick up a lot of strange injuries. He missed games last year with a "retinal migraine." I'm not going to lie, I've never even heard of that. Keep in mind that Joey's yet to have a 30-homer season or a 100-RBI season. If you're thinking about drafting Votto in the first round. Take a cold shower. If you're thinking about taking Joey in the second round, take a deep breath. Draft Joey as you see fit in the third round. You have my blessing.
Player that no one is buying, but should: Jonny Gomes
Power is hard to find after the first ten rounds of the draft. If I'm a little short on thump, I start looking at guys like Gomes, Nick Swisher and Cody Ross. The only difference between the trio is that Gomes is going virtually undrafted. Jonny will be part of a platoon in Cincinnati, but I think he's going to be the part of the platoon that I want. Once Dusty Baker sees what his offense is going to look like with Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs in the outfield, he'll start penciling Jonny into the lineup with a little more regularity. Jonny thumped 20 homers in only 314 plate appearances last year. I think he's good for at least 400 in 2010. He should be good for more than 20 homers.
The downside: Dusty Baker's witch doctor tells him that putting Jonny in the lineup is bad juju and Jonny spends the season on the bench. Oddly enough, Bill James is the most bullish on Gomes. That system has Jonny with only 16 homers and 44 RBIs with a .245 average. That's waiver-wire fodder if I ever saw it.
The bottom line: CHONE has Jonny blasting 23 homers with 63 RBI and a .247 average. That's more in line with what I'd expect from Jonny, but I think he's got a little more upside than that. Every year that Gomes has reached 400 plate appearances, he's been over 20 homers. He's playing in a outfield that should have available at bats. He seemed to enjoy hitting at the Great American Ballpark in 2010. He hit 11 homers with a .267 average in 151 plate appearances at the GAB. I don't think 25 homers with a .250ish average is out of the question.
Previously on In the Draft Room ...
Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs
 |
The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please 
The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our 
The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? 