Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Ubaldo Jimenez

I already own Jimenez in two leagues. I'm blinded by my Ubaldo Jimenez fancrush. His stuff is absolutely electric, and I think he's really harnessed it. In April of last year, Ubaldo was waiver-wire fodder with a 7.00+ ERA. After April, he made a lot of fantasy owners look stupid. The difference was that he stopped walking batters. He walked 17 in 19 innings in April. His next highest single month walk total was 16, but that was in 36.2 innings in September. Ubaldo posted 15 Ws last year and I don't see why he can't win 15 more in 2010. He just missed 200 Ks in 2009. I think he gets there in 2010. He should post an ERA in the mid 3s and an WHIP in the 1.20-1.25 range.

The downside: He struggles early again or he tosses another 100 MPH pitch and his arm flies off like Mark Prior's did. CHONE has the most bearish projection on Ubaldo. CHONE has him posting a 4.02 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and only 11 W's. I'm really not worried about Coors field because Ubaldo profiles as a ground ball pitcher. His GB:FB ratio was 1.88.

The bottom line: Ubaldo is a guy that I want on my roster. My concern is that I either wait on him too long or someone does something weird and takes him with a WTF?! pick in the sixth round. I drafted him in the seventh round in the Hurler league. It was between Ubaldo and Yovani Gallardo, and I felt Ubaldo was the safer pick. He's less of an injury risk than YoGa and I think the Rockies will be better than the Brewers. That was the deciding factor in my decision and I'm fine with it ... until Ubaldo has a 6.00 ERA in April and I'm headbutting my walls during his starts.

Player who will make me fist pump when he goes two rounds too early: Ian Stewart

I think he's getting way too much hype, and he's going to cause a lot of fantasy owners to be very upset with him. If he's available in the teens, he's a fine choice. If he's going in the seventh round, I think that's way too high and he probably won't live up to his draft status. There isn't much depth at third base in 2010. The strategy at third is to either draft an elite third baseman or wait for one of the guys with warts. Stewart is a guy with warts, and he's being drafted like an solid option. I've got him hitting about .260ish with 25 homers. How different will that really be from Adrian Beltre? Beltre is going almost 100 picks after Stewart, but Beltre gets the scarlet letter and Stewart is considered a smart pick. I have no idea why.

The upside: The most bullish prediction on Stewart is Bill James. The Bill James system has him with a .256 average, 70+/70+ in run production and 24 homers. Hold on! Where's that All-Star ballot?! I guess he's a rebound candidate, but I don't see him as a pick in the first 10 rounds. He posted a solid OBP with his cruddy batting average. Could he be 2010's Mark Reynolds? I suppose there's a chance, but I don't think he'll post the ridiculous homer and SB totals that  Reynolds posted. I guess that's his upside. I'll put Stewart's ceiling at 30 homers with eight stolen bases. Whatever. I'm still not reaching for him.

The bottom line: Last year was his first shot at a full-time job and he was disappointing. If he starts slow again, watch out for Melvin Mora stealing third-base at-bats for the Rockies. If I had to guess at an over/under on homers, I'd probably set it at 26.5. I'd probably take the under, but I'm not a Stewart guy. How different are the projections for Stewart and Chipper Jones? The only difference is the age and injury history, but I'd rather protect batting average with Chipper and hope for 20 homers with 70/70 run production. I'd rather have Chipper in the 12th than Stewart in the 7th, but I'd probably punt 3B and take Adrian Beltre eight rounds later. I guess the advice here is don't fall over yourself to draft this guy.

Player who no one is buying but should: Chris Ianetta

I wanted to use this section for Carlos Gonzalez, but I think his stock has risen to the point that he's no longer a sleeper. He went in the 11th round of the Hurler draft. He wouldn't have lasted past my next pick in the 12th. People are buying him. No one is buying Chris Ianetta. I think he could be this year's cruddy catcher with power who will find his way onto my roster. When I'm looking for my cruddy late-round catcher, all I want is power and health. I don't care if he hits .200, as long as he's hitting home runs and staying in the lineup. Yes, he hit .220 last year and, yes, he should be a black hole when it comes to batting average. He managed to post an .800+ OPS with his .220 average. I think his average could rebound to the .250 area, and I think his OPS will rise with it. He's being drafted after "Slim" Soto and I don't see why. I'd rather have a healthy thumper than a 165-lb. version of Geovany.

The downside: Miguel Olivo. Last year, Ianetta lost at bats to Yorvit Torrealba. This year, he'll probably lose at bats to Miguel Olivo. The fear is that Ianetta starts slow and loses his job to Olivo. At that point he becomes waiver-wire fodder and Olivo becomes the cruddy waiver-wire catcher that takes his place. If you own Ianetta, either handcuff him with Olivo if you have a deep bench or cut his ass at the first sign of trouble.

The bottom line: I still believe in finding a catcher with pop and leaving him in the lineup as long as he's healthy and playing. Ianetta is probably going to be that guy in at least one of my leagues. I think Ianetta is good for a .250ish average with at least 50/50 run production and 20 homers. The most bullish prediction on Ianetta belongs to Bill James. That system has him with a 20 homers, 60/60 run production and a .259 average. That's about what I'm expecting, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hit .240. Either way, I like him for an .800+ OPS. I can't say the same for Slim Soto.

Previously on In the Draft Room ...

Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays

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