Player who will make me punch the screen when he goes in front of me: Evan Longoria

I'm stuck drafting 12th in a league that's been together for a quite a few years and I'm really hoping Longoria falls to me at the 12th spot. My gut tells me that Longoria is going to make it to 11 and then get taken directly in front of me. If that happens, I'll likely miss my first two picks because I'll have tossed my mouse across the room. There is a lot to like with Longoria. Evan has 30+ homer power and my gut tells me that Evan can crack double digit stolen bases. Since Evan started playing professionally in 2006, he has been caught stealing exactly twice. I like Evan better than guys like Ryan Howard and Matt Holliday for one reason -- position scarcity. Third base gets ugly this year. It's the Chipper Jones line this year. If Chipper gets drafted and I don't have a third baseman, I'm in trouble. Adrian Beltre? No thank you. Jhonny Peralta? He can't even spell his own effing name. Things get gross quickly.

The downside: The most bearish prediction on Evan comes from CHONE, which has Evan going for 26 homers with 77 runs and 88 RBIs with a .283 batting average. I don't see much downside with Evan. Most of the SABR numbers are headed in the right direction. He doesn't have an injury history. I have no idea why CHONE thinks he's going to play 137 games. What am I missing?

The bottom line: Bill James is the most bullish of the prediction systems. The James system has Evan going off for 37 homers with 106 runs and 120 RBIs with a .287 average. That's more like it. I'd bet the under on the homers and RBIs, but I think it's close. The runs and average sound about right to me. I think Evan is about to rattle off about 10 straight seasons of reliable fantasy production. All the projections like him for single digit steals. I think he cracks 10, but it's not a deciding factor in my decision. I want Evan for his bat. The extra steals are just a bonus.

Player who will make me fist pump when he goes two rounds too early: Jason Bartlett

"Free Bartlett!" was the battle cry before 2009. Well, he finally had the training wheels taken off and turned in a career year, but that's the problem. He's coming off a career year and he's suddenly become overvalued. It's amazing how fast that can happen to a guy like Bartlett. Spend a few years getting mentioned as a sleeper and you become too popular once you break out. I have no idea where the power came from last year. He went from one homerun in 2008 to 14 in 2009. Now, I hit exactly zero home runs in 2008 and Bartlett hit only one more than me. His fly ball rate was up from 30.3% in 2008 to 39.1% in 2009. His HR:FB rate went from 0.9% in 2008 to 8.7% in 2009. His career average is around 4.2%. 4.2% is more what I'd expect in 2010.

The upside: He continues his breakout and becomes an elite fantasy shortstop. Could he hit 20 homers? I wouldn't bet on it, but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. All the projection systems have eight homers and around 50 RBIs penciled in for 2010. That's down from 14 homers and 66 RBIs in 2009. The career-year red light should be going off.

The bottom line: What does Bartlett do that guys like Stephen Drew and Yunel Escobar can do? Stay healthy? Well, Bartlett spent time on the DL with a sprained ankle last year. Drew is going 10 picks later than Bartlett and Escobar is going almost 50 picks later than Bartlett. Unless he falls to the 12th-14th round area, I think he's an avoid. I definitely don't want him in the top 100. I think the stolen bases are totally legit, but if you're looking for speed at the shortstop position, you can look late. If you're expecting power from Bartlett, get ready to get disappointed.

Player who no one is buying but should: Jeff Niemann

I really wanted to use this space to write about Carlos Pena, but he's actually being drafted. Matt Joyce was also a consideration, but 15-homer/10-steal/crummy-average potential doesn't excite me at all. Jeff Niemann is going after Tim Hudson in Yahoo! style drafts at MDC. He's a late-round play that should provide depth and could provide upside. Niemann enjoyed a mini-breakout in 2009 with 13 wins, a sub 4.00 ERA (barely), 1.35 WHIP and 125 Ks in 180 innings. I think Niemann has a chance to be a Jon Garland type with more Ks. He averaged almost a K-per inning in the minors, and last year was his his first full big league season. I think the problem is that his name makes him sound kind of boring. Jeff Niemann. Let's give him a nickname. Say, KNUCKLES Niemann. That's a guy I want on my team! I don't care what his statline says. I'll take one good Knuckles over 10 Tim Hudsons everyday of the week.

The downside: Mediocrity, I guess. If his ERA stays over 4.00 and he doesn't provide Ws, I think he's waiver-wire fodder. CHONE is the most bearish of the prediction systems with a 4.59 ERA and 9-9 record. That's waiver-wire material if I ever saw it. So, you draft him in the 20th round and have to cut him. Big deal. The only real concern is the schedule. I'm not sure I want to start him against some of the more potent offenses in the AL. He could be a great spot starter when he matches up against Toronto.

The bottom line: Bill James is the most bullish of the prediction systems, and it's more what I'd expect from Knuckles in his second full big-league season at age 27. They've got him down for a 10-12 record with 4.46 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 171 Ks in 200 innings. I think he can do even better. In the second half of 2009, Knuckles' K-rate went up, his WHIP and walks went down, but his ERA went up. Strange? I think so. I think he's a solid value play in the 20th round. Instead of buying a lottery ticket on Daisuke or one of the other battered starters, why not take a flier on a guy who could actually throw 180+ innings? I'm also hoping his new nickname sticks. Imagine, he's pitching in a pennant race with the bases loaded and two outs. Everyone at The Trop chanting, "Knuck! Knuck! Knuck!" If that happens, he won't be a 20th round pick any more.

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers

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