Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Brett Anderson

Anderson wins this slot by default. He's one of maybe three A's worth having on a roster this season. There is no way I'm punching the screen when Rajai Davis "flies" off the draft board in the 15th round. Normally, I wouldn't touch a 22-year old second-year starter on a cruddy team, but Anderson does two things that I really, really like. He's capable of striking batters out, and he doesn't walk that many guys. He struck out 150 batters in 175 innings and his K:BB was at 3.33. I'm worried about his draft position. He's going around the 15th/16th round. I like him in the 16th round or later for pitching depth. I'm concerned that someone in my league is going to talk himself into Anderson as a 12th or 13th rounder.

The downside: If he gets double digit wins, I'll be impressed. I'm also more than a little worried about his innings bump. He went from 100 minor league innings to 175 major league innings in 2009. I really hope the words "partially frayed labrum" aren't in his future. Also, I'm not sure he'll be able to repeat a 4.06 ERA. All of the projections like him for a slightly lower ERA. I don't get it. Yes, he throws in a pitchers' park and yes Oakland seems interested in defensive metrics, but I really get a regression vibe coming off Anderson. I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up with a 4.50 ERA, but that's my gut talking.

The bottom line: Anderson is a supposed "ace in waiting." The only problem is the waiting part. I can rattle off a dozen names of "aces in waiting" from years past that never panned out after showing something in their rookie year. I'd like to officially name these guys the Shawn Estes All-Stars. I'm getting that vibe from Anderson. Yes, I am writing this hoping that everyone in the Fantasy Hurler league passes on him, and I swoop him up in the 17th round. If I draft Anderson, I'm doing it for the K, WHIP potential with an ERA that won't suck. Don't expect Ws from Anderson. He's only going to frustrate you if you need Ws.

Player who will make me fist pump when he goes two rounds too early: Andrew Bailey

I think Andrew Bailey is going to end up as an answer to a trivia question. The question is, "Who beat three-time MVP Gordon Beckham for the 2009 Rookie of the Year award?" He's a good reliever on a 90+ loss team. There won't be many save opportunities for Andrew. Also, the A's are fully stocked with save vultures. Michael Wuertz, Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler are all looming around Andrew and looking to pick at the rotting carcass that will undoubtedly be the 2010 Oakland A's. He's also coming off what could be a career year. Exactly how different last year was Bailey from David Aardsma? Not much, and Seattle will likely have more save opportunities than Oakland in 2010. So, if they're so similar, why is Bailey going 30 picks ahead of Aardsma? I have no idea, but you can guess which guy I'll have on my roster.

The upside: Bailey continues to post a sub-2.00 and becomes an elite closing option on a cruddy team. He could be the 2010 version of Joakim Soria. All he's missing is the bad-ass nickname. I like the sound of Andrew "Friday the 13th" Bailey. His hometown is listed as Voorhees, New Jersey. He cuts down batters like Jason cuts down horny teenagers and he always comes back. I like it. I could even see someone photo shopping his image into a Friday the 13th movie poster and selling them.

The bottom line: He's an over-valued closer, and I don't think he's going to come close to his 2009 numbers. All the projections like him for an ERA over 3.00 with a WHIP over 1.10. His 2009 WHIP was an ungodly 0.88. I think the K numbers are totally legit, but I have a hard time buying his 3.79 K:BB ratio in 2009. His 2008 K:BB at AA was 1.96. He'll likely crack 25 saves, but I can't see him doing more than that with the crappy team and three legitimate save vultures on the roster. I'd rather wait a few rounds and try for 30+ with someone like Aardsma, Bobby Jenks or Rafael Soriano.

Player who no one is buying but should: Jake Fox

I thought about using this spot for Ben Sheets, Kevin Kouzmanoff or Ryan Sweeney, but I talked myself out of it because there is nothing remotely exciting about any of those guys. I chose to go with the gamble: Jake Fox. Jake Fox can hit, and this Oakland offense needs a hitter. Jake will drive in runs and hit homers, but his problem is playing time. Oakland has a glut of mediocre corner IF/DH types. Jake could get stuck in a playing time squeeze. Depending on your league rules, he might still have catcher eligibility. If Jake can find a way to get some at bats at DH/1B and maintain his catcher eligibility, I think he has value.

The downside: Jake winds up stuck at AAA for half the season and on the bench for the other half. He's not worth stashing if he's not getting any playing time.

The bottom line: All of the projection systems like him for a .760+ OPS. Bill James is by far the most optimistic on Fox and calls for an .885 OPS in 234 PA's. Oakland is projected as having Daric Barton at first and Jack Cust at DH. These guys aren't exactly Ruth and Gehrig. At some point, Fox is going to get an extended look, and I think I want him on my roster when that happens. This is a situation that I really want to monitor in spring training. If it sounds like Fox is going to get playing time, he becomes an end-of-the-draft flier. If he's riding the pine, I keep him on my watch list.

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees

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