-- Ah ... it's vulture season out there folks, don't miss out. I am not a big believer in Trevor Hoffman's long term health. If you missed out on the Villanueva sweepstakes, I'd take a gamble on Todd Coffey. His career stats aren't much to look at, but check out the last 20 to 30 appearances. All indications are he's come of age. What's the harm here?

-- Similarly, I have to wonder about Jose Valverde's ever increasing list of injuries. Calf injury, batted ball off the ankle, back stiffness ... LaTroy Hawkins has burned many an owner before, but when vulturing saves, you've got to keep an open mind. At least the Hawk has been dealing lately.

-- I'd say Rafael Soriano is overwhelmingly likely to lead the Atlanta Braves in saves. I don't think he's the true closer ... yet ... but it's clear that Gonzalez is going to be used in earlier innings when lefty v. lefty matchups dictate it, and that Soriano is having a better year thus far. I actually think the Braves have two pretty good pitchers here (Gonzalez's early inconsistency was probably due to his shaking the recovery-time rust off), so both are worth owning.  I'd say Soriano saves 20ish and Gonzalez 10 to 15.

-- Scott Downs is probably close to 100% owned by now, but just in case, grab him. And find a more competitive league. I think Jason Frasor is out of that loop.

-- Not a vulture situation, per se, but definitely a "sell high" one. Look at Francisco Cordero's 1.2ish ERA. Now look at his 1.4ish WHIP. Guess which of those two numbers is likely to change in a big way? Congratulations on the great start to his season. Now sell. You might be able to find an offensive upgrade AND a lower tier closer for him.

-- I would buy on Adam LaRoche and Mike Jacobs. LaRoche, relative to his career averages, is having the greatest April of any baseball player in the history of the multiverse. If he follows his normal seasonal curve, he will put up a 200/85/225/.600/1 line. He may actually be out there on waivers in shallow leagues. Look at his career numbers and you'll probably conclude, like I have, that we're watching a career year unfolding before our eyes. Jacobs is having a good start, but he's particularly money in daily transactional leagues. Just bench him against lefties.

-- If anyone in your league gave up on Shin-Soo Choo, grab him.

-- Is Elvis Andrus still  more valuable on the player-raters than Jose Reyes? *GROWL!*

-- Edwin Jackson was the victim of some bad luck today, including a rare botched play by Brooks Robinson-esque Brandon Inge, so I wouldn't remove him from my watch list quite yet. He wasn't locating very well, but when he missed, he was almost always missing down.

-- If an impatient owner dropped Jason Verlander, I'd use anything but the most premier waiver pick on him. His velocity (at least according to MLB Game Channel's handy radar gun feature) is back in the mid to high-mid-ish 90s, and his WHIP does not match his ERA. His strand percentage is insanely bad -- meaning he's been really unlucky thus far. I think a sub-4.00 ERA with near a K an inning is still very, very possible, and for a waiver wire grab that's good upside.

-- Is it just me, or is corner infielder a wasteland this year? I mean, it's awful. I pull up the free agent pool, and the best I can hope for in deep leagues is a Pedro Feliz, Ty Wigginton, or maybe a Casey Kotchman. Feliz now has an appearance at shortstop, by the way. Outfield, on the other hand, is bursting like Jaime Koeppe's thong.

Comments (11)

Forrest Kobayashi said:

	... I missed out on Scott Downs in my leagues, but he could easily hold the TOR closing job for the entire season. BJ Ryan is really struggling with velocity, and he doesn't look right.
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April 24, 2009
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Bob Taylor said:

	... If Downs keeps the job for the season, he's one of the five best closers in baseball. Period.
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April 24, 2009
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bill said:

	... Shin Soo was dropped, who can I drop to pick him up: Bonifacio, Maybin, or Swisher?
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April 24, 2009
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Mike Bock said:

	... The most obvious guy to drop of those is Maybin. Bonifacio still has some use due to his multi-eligibility, and Swisher has become an undroppable sort of guy.
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April 24, 2009
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Kevin said:

... Bob, With all due respect, that's ridiculous. Let me see: Papelbon, K-Rod, Rivera, Broxton, Soria, Capps, Lidge, and Jenks are all demonstrably better based on the fact that they have done it before for entire seasons. Wilson and Health Bell may even be better on pure stuff alone. Fact is, we don't know what he'll do with a full season or if he can even make it the whole year doing that. Downs doesn't have any history of a full season at closer yet. Cart.before.horse. Supreme LOOGY/ 7th& 8th inning guy? Certainly. Top five closer? Stop yourself. I know you scooped him in a couple leagues but don't break your arm patting yourself on the back for doing so.. C'mon, dude, I expect better from the esteemed staff of the Hurler

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April 24, 2009
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Mike Bock said:

... He's been a quality reliever for a few years now, but looking at his stats, he's built a lot of his BAA/ERA/WHIP numbers dominating lefties. Not an elite pitcher by any means, I think it's a bit unfair to call him a LOOGY. Sure, there are a hell of a lot of closers who are simply better stuff-wise or numbers-wise, but man ... Downs looks like a steal. If he keeps the job all year he may not only be top five, but number one in terms of value versus "price to acquire," considering he was either a last round pick or had for free. I don't know if the order you listed, above, are your actual rankings, but I feel reasonably confident if teams re-drafted today that Papelbon and K-Rod wouldn't be the top two guys off the board.

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April 24, 2009
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Bob Taylor said:

... If I knew Downs was going to close for the rest of the season, I'd rather have him right now than Capps, Jenks or Wilson. How many other guys did you name? Let's see ... seven others. Okay, maybe I got a little ahead of myself. We'll say top eight. And (obviously) I would not be shocked if Downs ended up outperforming a couple of those other guys. I guess it is putting the cart before the horse ... but, hey, that's why it's called a prediction. If anything, we're probably jumping the gun talking like he's going to close the rest of the year. We'll see what happens with Ryan and if the Jays decide to see how anyone else does in the ninth. Anyone else drinking the Downs Kool-Aid?

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April 24, 2009
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Kevin said:

... Yep, value does need to be considered, and perhaps I didn't factor that into the equation nearly enough. And that wasn't a ranking per se, just guys that might give you more saves and decent enough ratios to justify the draft picks. But I just realized I didn't even include Nathan on that list. And Heath Bell could be just as much of a steal. Big triple digit hittin mofo..... But I'm not typically one to spend big on closers, as Rivera is the only closer I drafted high in any leagues (2 of four teams). He's the king until he's knocked off the block, and he could retire tomorrow and still be the best in the game. In most leagues, I tended to enter the market in the Qualls, Francisco, Hanrahan, Lindstrom area and actually am rocking Hawkins and Coffey in a couple leagues. Downs can certainly outperform all of those guys, I'm not debating that. He does dominate lefties but his career path has been fairly traditional for a left handed middle reliever (where he definitely was a bad starter, then a LOOGY before figuring out how to pitch in last couple years). And yes, Bob, I probably am jealous that I didn't scoop him first before you did, I am comfortable admitting that. Top ten? Maybe.... If a couple of those guys falter and lose their place in line AND he can do in the ninth what he does in 7th or 8th. Top five? Not a chance, no matter what Kool Aid you drink.....Great responses guys, love the back & forth.

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April 24, 2009
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Bob Taylor said:

	... Which league are you talking about, Kevin? I don't have Downs in the Hurler league. (Wish I did.) I do have him in MLB Front Office Dynasty, but it wasn't a scoop -- I drafted him!
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April 24, 2009
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Kevin said:

	... I thought you had him in the Hurler League, my bad. Great snag in the Dynasty League, tho, and your investment in holds will turn into an investment in saves now. We both could use some help in the Hurler League. I have 4 starters going tonight, time to make some hay......
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April 24, 2009
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Bob Taylor said:

... Boy, my Hurler league team sure could use Downs. I did get him in my big-money league, where I'm dealing with a banged-up, shaky-looking Valverde. Yes! So, yeah, maybe the excitement got the better of me with the "Top 5" proclamation. Also contributing -- the fact that I have Downs in two leagues and do tend to think in terms of closer "value." Obviously, he's not an elite close, a la Papelbon, Nathan, Soria, Broxton, K-Rod ... But check his '08 numbers: 57 Ks in 70.2 IP (not great but certainly solid) and a 1.78/1.15 ERA/WHIP (which are excellent). And, so far, he's been even better this year: 14 Ks in 9.2 IP to go along with 0.93/0.41. When you consider the second tier of closers, value guys like Qualls, Wood, Capps, Wilson, Lindstrom, Fuentes ... I think Downs immediately goes at or near the top of that list (for as long as he's closing, anyway). Then there are the question marks ... Is Heath Bell for real? Can Valverde ever get healthy? Can Rivera keep this up at his age? (I keep saying no, but, then again, I keep saying Albert Pujols' elbow is going to disintegrate at some point. Moral of this story: Don't listen to me.)

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April 24, 2009
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