A friend of mine and I were discussing the exorbitant number of highly drafted/touted players dropped this early in the year. I think it's the down economy. People don't have the stomach to watch some millionaire athlete shit all over a hobby he uses as a refuge from our overpopulated and under-intelligentsia'd world. Lastings Milledge was dropped in both my leagues. I've seen fourth and fifth round draft picks dropped after the first week!

So we sat down and brainstormed. I tried to think of the players with the earliest ADP who I legitimately think have a serious chance of being dropped this year due to on-field performance issues. (These first-week nervous-nellie drops don't count.) I.e., not players who I think are, or will be, seriously injured (no Ichiro or Brandon Webb), or who will be discovered running an illegal dogfighting ring (no Elijah Dukes). By the way, if Ichiro comes back and is healthy for a few weeks, I'd try to move him immediately. If I could get Victorino or Rios, I'd do it.

Here is the list I came up with:

1.) Alexei Ramirez has one partial MLB season under his belt. He swings at everything. It's like Alfonso Soriano, but you're hoping for 25/25 instead of 40/40. His insane eligibility is a plus, but he's batting seventh, and he needs to start taking pitches or he's not going to get anything to hit. Vlad and Alfonso could make the hack-at-everything approach work because they're freaks of nature. Considering that MI is looking surprisingly deep this year, I think Alexei may be a legitimate drop in a few months if he doesn't change his approach. Being his owner for these early at-bats has been pure torture. MLB Extra Innings ended not being as fun as I had hoped simply because it gave me the opportunity to watch Alexei at the plate.

2.) Chris Davis has three problems. He's a corner infielder, he's prone to slumps, and Texas has a logjam of guys who need at-bats at the position(s) he plays. He's shown some signs of life, but if he immediately goes on another bender like the one we've just seen, he's going to lose playing time. Regardless of potential, in shallow to moderately shallow leagues with short benches you cannot carry a guy who isn't going to get 400+ at-bats. However, his eligibility and power is going to keep him employed him deeper leagues all year, but deep leagues are still in the minority. Considering how high I was on Davis, this was a very painful selection. But, it was made less painful by the fact I didn't end up getting him in either of my leagues.

3.) Russell Martin was actually the guy I thought most likely to be dropped due to sucking ass. I think he is one of the very rare position players who is going to see his career seriously and negatively affected due to mismanagement. Look at his at-bats, stolen base attempts, and games/innings played over the last few seasons. The guy is not a physical specimen like the 'roided-up Pudge Rodriguez was. I've watched a lot of Dodger games, and he just looks out of sorts physically. Most worrisome of all is that he looks like he's lost a step ... in April. Catchers get old faster than other positions, and it often comes in a hurry. Maybe he's just struggling early, but I seem to remember him tending to get out of the gate fast. The only thing saving him is that he may steal bases, he bats fifth (TWO SLOTS AHEAD OF KEMP!), and the catcher position is shallow. But is it that shallow? Seems like there's 12 to 15 serviceable catchers. And if there's one thing fantasy owners hate, it's getting brutalized in batting average from a catcher. I think Russell Martin may be a lot closer to a drop than people realize. However, I didn't think of the guy who we both eventually decided is the clear-cut favorite. My buddy was the one who selected him ...

4.) David Ortiz looks. Fucking. Done. He's been slipping for a few years, and you hear complaints about nagging injuries, etc., but what's the problem now? I'll tell you one problem, his bat looks like it's being swung by a big fat sloth. He can't get around on anything. Considering his stance hasn't changed despite possible physical limitations, this is a major problem. It looks like he's waiting on a hanging breaking ball or a pitcher who can't throw a big league fastball. He's going to guess right and crush one now and then, but man ... I'd be scared to death if I drafted him as a core component of my team. But the real death knell is this -- he's an absolute albatross on a roster. You can't move him anywhere. He's stuck at UTIL. Depending on where your roster's unbenchables are, there are entire classes of free agents you can't pick up or play because you can only put them at UTIL, which is where increasingly worthless David Ortiz resides. Considering Ortiz has been, relatively speaking, one of the most underpaid major leaguers of the last 10 to 20 years (though Evan Longoria is about to utterly annihilate all comers and may never be challenged), his decline is coming at a bad time for him.

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