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Now that the Super Bowl -- and it's godawful officiating -- is behind us, fantasy baseball season is truly upon us. There's nothing I love better than curling up with a stack of fantasy baseball mags, grabbing a sixer of Storm King Victory Stout, and shouting obscenities at Lindy's ludicrous rankings while I relax in the tub.
Last year was the year of the duds. I can't recall a season in which so many first or second round choices underperformed. Lance Berkman, of course, went crazy in an even-numbered season, so at least some thing went as predicted.
Fantasy Hurler, beginning this week, will be lauching its annual draft guide series. Just like last year, we'll be going position by position, taking a look at where the conventional wisdom went wrong and trying to find the little nuggets of information that can make a difference. If you're in a competitive league, be prepared to work harder than ever to finish in the money. Seriously. Anybody who tells you that winning a fantasy baseball league doesn't require luck is lying. But nowadays, it requires more than that: you've got to be Johnny-on-the-spot with waiver wire call-ups and closer replacements or you're going to be battling from behind all season.
Unlike real sports GMs, who can be the worst ever at their job and still land a cushy gig at NBC providing Super Bowl analysis, fantasy owners will actually have the effectiveness of their strategies judged by the harsh reality of a numerical scoring system every year. Think taking SPs with your first two picks is a great idea? Chris Carpenter taught you an important lesson. Think loading up on elite relievers will secure you the top spot in saves? B.J. Ryan bukkaked all over your year a few years back.
This leads us right into John Kruk. There's always one moment that gets me primed for fantasy baseball. This year, it was Kruk proclaiming in early January that "... Francisco Rodriguez had the most saves last year, this means he's the best closer in baseball." He might have actually said "best closer ever," but my mind was rejecting what my senses were delivering to them and I might have blacked out.
Unfortunately Fire Joe Morgan, my favorite blog that I don't write for, is no more. But if they were here, I know what they'd say. AYIAYIAYAIYAIYAIYAYAIAYA. I almost think ol' one-ball is kidding with us. That he actually knows K-Rod's batting average against has been going the wrong way for years. That his 2.24 ERA, in light of decidedly non-elite 1.28 WHIP, is basically a mirage. The Mets specialize in overpaying closers. Don't you do it, too. I'm really, really looking forward to writing the relief pitcher draft guide. There are more premium buy-low opportunities for saves this season then I can ever remember.
One final thought as we lurch towards spring training -- have fun. I know I burnt out last season (too many leagues, too pregnant of a wife). You think Wieters is going to to the second coming of Geovany Soto, except that his teammates might actually drive him the fuck home every once in a while? Maybe go a round or two early. Use sound principles, but build a team that you like.
Except, for God's sakes, don't think Francisco Rodriguez is the best closer in baseball.
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