I was hesitant to write this draft guide. I've had great years picking starting pitchers. Great. Years. Last year was not one of them. Nor was the year before. I was a year early on Ervin Santana in 2007. Chris Young and Rich Hill didn't exactly pan out last year.
But, after looking back at my '08 SP draft guide, I can tell you this: at least I had a knack for foreseeing injuries to high-draft pick SPs. Consider that I accurately predicted, in February, that the following pitchers would miss significant time or see catastrophic drop-offs due to overuse: John Lackey (hurt), Justin Verlander (strangely ineffective ... overuse!), Aaron Harang (strangely ineffective), Scott Kazmir (hurt), and Dontrelle Willis (apparently run over by a train).
Basically, starting pitching is a crapshoot. And the field is very, very deep this year. Even in 12-team, 25-man-roster leagues, you should have at least three decent prospects, even if you wait till round 7+ to start taking a few SPs. After the top five to 10 names, I see the dropoff as so steep I may just wait a long, long time. That's not to say there aren't a few guys worth taking early, because there are, but I see the downside to reaching for a starting pitcher to be catastrophic. You don't want to be the guy jumping on Chad Billingsley in the fourth round because Santana/Lincecum/Hamels/Sabathia/Webb/Peavy are gone.
Only four starting pitchers were ranked in the top 20 in Yahoo standard 5x5 leagues. Only nine were in the top 50. In 2007, only 10 were in the top 50. And only about half of those were predictable. So, basically, in the first four or five rounds you shouldn't see more than four or five SPs go. If more than that are flying off the board in your draft, enjoy dominating the hitting categories.
Then again, bad starting pitching can hurt you a lot more than an ineffective outfielder you took a flier on in round 20. I'll give you an example I use every year. My second year of fantasy baseball, I started Roger Clemens, Chris Carpenter, and someone I can't remember on opening day. Each gave up 10 or more runs. It was a month before my ERA and WHIP recovered. Juan Pierre isn't going to subtract home runs from your total. You need to minimize risk without spending high draft picks.
I used to say don't take pitching early unless it's a sure thing. I've changed my mind. There is no sure thing. Don't take a pitcher in the first two rounds, period, unless maybe you're getting Santana at the tail end of the second round and you know that one of the sluggers left on the board will fall to you. Focus on ratios, not wins. One-K-per-inning SPs who got unlucky in the "wins" category, WHIPs that look unusually low for the ERA (if you see a 1.2 WHIP and a 4+ ERA, that pitcher probably was really unlucky) -- this is what you want. Avoid pitchers who eat innings without contributing a good K-rate and ERA/WHIP numbers.
Every year there are 10 to 15 undrafted SPs who outperform players that went in the first six or seven rounds. Every. Year. You want those guys, and if you're spending high and mid-level draft picks on underperformers, you won't have the roster flexibility to grab them.
Again: Ignore wins. Wins are a function of how many runs a team scores for a pitcher. Get players with good ratios and hope that the wins come your way. You can't predict wins. Don't try. If all things are equal, get the player on the better team, but all things are almost never equal.
For draft guides for pitchers going forward, I'm going with lists rather than tiers. Pitching simply doesn't work with a tier system. So many fewer pitchers are being drafted that a few runs here or there can throw things so far out of whack that a draft guide based on tiers is going to be too misleading.
1. Johan Santana. Not worried about early season troubles, constantly dominates.
2. Tim Lincecum is, in my mind, a distant second.
3. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Cole Hamels was just warming up last season. I think this year will be better.
4. I worry about CC Sabathia's pitch counts, but for at least one more year, he's earned it. Yankee stadium is actually very left friendly.
5. Brandon Webb is a machine. Considering 90+ percent of the pitches he throws are arm-saving two-seam fastballs, I worry less about wear and tear with him than I do pitchers who throw a lot of sliders.
6. Roy Halladay could justifiably be upset he isn't in my top three, considering he was the highest ranked fantasy pitcher last year.
7. Chad Billingsley is poised for a big break out.
8. Yes, Jake Peavy is way down here. Last year Bob and I went back and forth quite a bit on the Peavy v. Johan dilemma at the number one spot. I pointed out Peavy's been inconsistent and a bit of an injury risk. He responded by slavering on Peavy's image in a fantasy baseball magazine, screaming obscenities, and throwing things at me. I was right, of course. Once again, I'm more down on Peavy than most. He's a likely trade candidate, and he does a lot better at PETCO than on the road.
There is a very large drop-off at this point.
9. Felix Hernandez seems like he's been underwhelming, but look at his age. He's a frickin' baby! Some weird non-arm-related injuries have kept his workloads somewhat reasonable. I think he puts it all together this year.
10. John Lackey's injury woes due to overuse still concern me or he'd be higher.
11. I'm not a big Dan Haren fan. I admit he surprised me last year, considering how weighted his stats were towards Oakland. He's a solid, poised pitcher, but I don't see electric stuff from him. We'll see how he does the second time around the NL.
12. James Shields is perhaps the most underrated pitcher on the draft board.
13. Never liked Josh Beckett. Don't think the stadium or the league favor him, he's wildly inconsistent from year to year, and he seems like a red-assed punk.
14./15./16. Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Harden seem like they present exactly the same risk/reward ratio. Give the slight edge to Harden and Kazmir.
(I was going to put him at the end, but I want to make it clear that I consider Ervin Santana undraftable as anything but a late round flier due to elbow trouble. If his injury situation clears up by your draft time, adjust accordingly.)
17. Cliff Lee. I never believed, but he can lose a lot of ground and still be effective.
18. Guess who, two years ago, was poised to be a dominant top 10 fantasy pitcher for years to come? I'll give you a hint -- his name rhymes with Baloney Retardo. (Scroll to the end of this guide for his real name). I'm targeting him in every draft.
19. Edinson Volquez. Bad park, great stuff, great Ks. I'm shying away from him as he has only one great year under his belt.
20. Dice K Matsusomething may actually be a bit underrated. I'd rather have him at his ADP than Beckett by a mile.
21. You must discount Joba Chamberlain on draft due to the fact you won't get more than 160ish innings from him.
22. Javier Vazquez's numbers seem inexplicable. 200 Ks are 200 Ks. Let's see how the NL likes his filth.
23. Josh Johnson is a huge sleeper coming into this year. Looks healthy, he was the ERA champ a few years back, and had a great end of 2008 all things considered.
24. Roy Oswalt is declining rapidly. I see him as a decent No. 2 or great No. 3 pitcher now.
25. A.J. Burnett put up very solid numbers and pitched quite a bit in a contract year, then was signed by the Yankees. *Cough* Carl Pavano *cough*
26. As long as Zack Greinke stays on his meds, great sleeper.
27. I believe in Ricky Nolasco.
28. John Danks. Why does he keep going in the mid teens in my drafts?
29. Scott Baker. See John Danks, above.
30. Matt Cain. Great parks for him, showing signs of progress, team scored approximately 12 runs for him all of last year.
31./32. Adam Wainwright and Gil Meche. Both solid, often overlooked.
33. It's the declining K-rate more than anything else that scares me about Carlos Zambrano. His WHIP has always been merely "good" and ERAs tend to fluctuate, but his K-rate is going in the wrong direction. He's part of Dusty Baker's legacy of brutally abusing pitchers.
34. I predicted Justin Verlander's breakdown. I'd completely stay away from him this year, though if the price is right maybe you'll get one more year of health from him. He was mercilessly overused.
35. I can't see Ryan Dempster coming anywhere near his 2008. Hope for healthy.
36. Chris Young a post hype sleeper? I loved him last year. Fool me once, shame on you . . . etc.
37. Derek Lowe. Boring. Solid. Like Webb, his sinkerball style is conducive to health.
38. Erik Bedard. Oh, boy. Good luck. Talk about a sink or swim proposition.
39. Yes, I have Randy Johnson all the way up here. I think he's the veteran pitcher most likely to seriously outperform his draft position. There are always a few youngsters who come out of nowhere to dominate, but it takes real savvy to spot a veteran returning to form. Johnson looks healthy for the first time in forever.
40. I saw Aaron Harang's decline coming a mile away. Avoid.
41. Not a huge fan of rookie pitchers, but David Price has the stuff.
42. Brett Myers. No.
43./44. Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Same risks, same rewards.
45./46. Matt Garza's K-rate scares me in 5x5 leagues. So does Justin Duchscherer's. (Man, I hate typing that fucking name.)
47. Probably due to his silly moniker, Kevin Slowey is way underrated.
(Now's a good time for a reminder that Ben Sheets is not a fun player to draft.)
48. Brandon Morrow's arm woes are bothering me. I'll put him here, which is below where I originally wanted and way above where he should be if he doesn't get healthy ASAP.
49. Johnny Cueto. I still prefer Quato.
50. I still consider Chien-Ming Wang undraftable in 5x5 leagues if you don't have a staff that consists of nothing else but K-mongers. For the right team, though, he can be a huge steal. The right team is one that has Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, and Javier Vazquez in front 20th round selection of Wang.
51. Ted Lilly is very undervalued. Consider that a team of five Ted Lillys, all of whom are available way late in your draft, would be competitive in three or four categories.
52. Jair Jurrrrjjjjjjens. Huge upside. His numbers look down due to an awful end of last year (which we predicted here at the Hurler due to his youth and high innings count). There's a fine line between fatigue and abuse. We'll know this year which one happened to him in 2008.
53. For Jonathan Sanchez, all things look great: K-rate, park, and rookie errors leading to higher than they should be ratios. Go Sanchez!
54. Oliver Perez. Oh lord. If you have him, keep a bottle of Pepto Bismol by your desk at work. I see him as a bit of a sleeper, as he's on a one-year deal and has every incentive to focus.
55./56. Paul Maholm and Hiroki Kuroda are neck and neck. Cheap, effective pitchers.
57. Wandy Rodriguez is kind of like Jair Jurrrrrrrrjjjjjjens-lite.
58. Chris Carpenter. Late round flier.
59. Jeremy Guthrie's awful K-rate really depresses his value. So does the fact that he plays for Baltimore, a city that I only give a shit about when I'm watching The Wire.
That's just shy of 60 pitchers, which is what you can expect to be drafted in a standard-roster-size 5x5 league. If they're not here, I don't see them as worthy of putting on my draft board in standard formats.
Oh, and rhyming Yovani Gallardo is fun!
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