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In evaluating closer fill-ins, it's important not to fall in love with them. Owners of B.J. Ryan who handcuffed themselves to Scott Downs are congratulating themselves, but should they be? Depending on where they drafted B.J. Ryan, probably not. Downs has been good, but take a look at B.J. Ryan's career history. If you drafted B.J. in a league where everyone expected him to produce like he did a few years back, Downs is nowhere that level. (Ryan used to be an absolutely unreal reliever.) Sure, Downs has been great thus far, but Ryan and Downs owners had to waste two roster spots on essentially one position. Even DL slots have value.
I've seen a lot of intertron chatter about the Joakim Soria and Juan Cruz situation. I think Soria owners are right to be worried about him. Unlike long-suffering Lidge or Valverde owners, who have a pretty good idea that the problem isn't arm-related due to surgical procedures on appendages below these pitchers' waists, we know that Soria most definitely has a pitching arm problem. And we know he pitched in the WBC. And we know he's young, with no track record of quickly bouncing back. I'd be very concerned.
Is Juan Cruz an adequate fill-in? Sure. Is he Soria? Absolutely not. Ignoring useless stats such as saves and wins, here are the last two years for Cruz and Soria:
Soria in 2007: 69 innings, 75 Ks, 2.48 ERA, .94 WHIP
Cruz in 2007: 61 innings, 87 Ks, 3.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Soria in 2008: 67.1 innings, 66 Ks, 1.60 ERA, .86 WHIP
Cruz in 2008: 51.2 innings, 71 Ks, 2.61 ERA, 1.26 ERA
Cruz is also six years older (though, apparently, also six years more durable). Cruz is a good reliever, and his stats project that he would have been a middle of the pack draftee, maybe upper middle of the pack due to the Ks, if he was the bona fide closer back on draft day. But he ain't Soria, and the extra Ks are only going to slightly salve the pain of a pretty big WHIP and ERA hit.
What's the moral of the story? It's very rare that a fill-in closer is actually equivalent, or better than, the guy he replaces. You have the fact that the "old" closer may be coming back. You have the annoyance of roster uncertainty. Keep that in mind when sending or evaluating trade offers. Considering that in most leagues, closers are the players most likely to be sought in trades, or who owners are looking to be dealt, make sure you're not so ecstatic over vulturing a new candidate that you overvalue them.
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