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We're basically at the quarter pole, and it's no longer called panicking when Scott Kazmir or Brad Lidge are turning into a black hole of shittiness -- it's called reality.
David Ortiz owners, sorry, but he looks completely done. Ervin Santana owners, congratulations that Ortiz turned what could have been a disastrous pitching performance into merely a bad one. (0-7, 12 runners left on ... are you kidding me?) Terry Francona finally had to acknowledge the situation and bench Ortiz. At some point, I don't know, maybe Ortiz should lose some fucking weight? And get rid of that ridiculous beard?
Pablo Sandoval, aka Kung Fu Panda, hasn't been quite the sleeper extraordinaire I expected primarily due to his elevated draft-day status. (Damn fantasy baseball writers!) However, he's been quality amongst a sea of effluence. Brandon Inge and Victor Martinez demonstrate that going with catcher-eligible players who lodge time elsewhere is a good idea, Jesus Flores is unowned in way too many leagues, and John Baker should have been picked up in every league once it became clear that he was going to bat early in the lineup against righties. Moving forward, try to grab Wieters.
There are a ton of starting pitchers I'd be worried about. The list starts with guys like Scott Kazmir. Kazmir hasn't been the same since last year. Didn't he come back out after like a two-hour rain delay last August? I wonder if he's been the same since. Randy Johnson may get to 300 wins then collapse into a jumble of piled bones, and I gave up on Jonathan Sanchez. You cannot let guys like Ricky Nolasco punish you all year.
On the other hand, what can you realistically do at this point? Depending on league depth, you may be in trouble. Begin with K-rate and go from there. You see a guy with a good K-rate but bad peripherals, check out his walk total, then act accordingly. If your waiver wire is stacked with guys like Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell (all the same player?), Andy Pettitte, and other guys you're praying strike out six in nine innings, you may have to deal from one of your team's strengths. Guys like Edwin Jackson are long gone. Sometimes, it's about minimizing damage and being patient. And, for those who are in desperate straits, it's time to play the match-up game. Thirty-five starts from [INSERT PITCHERS GOING AGAINST THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS AND KANSAS CITY ROYALS HERE] can give you a pretty good fourth/fifth starter.
In deep leagues, your only real hope for a dramatic turnaround is catching lighting in a bottle from a Hanson-type call-up, trading for an injured stud and hoping he rebounds (*cough* Brandon Webb *cough*), or grabbing a guy whose win/loss record and ERA don't match his peripherals. The two big candidates going into the last few weeks for that last category were Justin Verlander and Javier Vazquez. The door is quickly closing on them, but there will be others.
In terms of closers, it's a catastrophe out there. Brad Lidge finally stopped giving up runs every appearance, I'm not buying that Joakim Soria didn't hurt himself in the WBC, and Jose Valverde seems like he's just falling apart. If you bought into the Washington Nationals bullpen, you paid a price. I'm surprised Brandon Morrow failed so spectacularly, and not surprised Brian Fuentes has been money after a rocky beginning. Most B.J. Ryan owners handcuffed him to Scott Downs, so they ended up with basically what they were expecting from Ryan.
You want a long-term sleeper at closer, look at Kiko Calero (you must sing his name to the tune of Copacabana) or someone from the Pirates bullpen who doesn't suck. (I think Capps is injured, again.) In terms of Kiko, he always has great stats when healthy, and I have no long-term faith in Lindstrom's ability to stay on the field or to avoid getting traded.
At third base, good luck. If you are a deep league, you are fucked if you were relying upon someone like Kevin Kouzmanoff to suddenly emerge. Mat(t) Gamel does not inspire me, nor does Chris Coghlan, even if he takes over for Emilio Bonifacio, seem compelling. I was a believer in Aubrey Huff going into this year, but maybe someone else isn't. Or maybe someone doesn't think Blalock will stay healthy. (If he DHs all year, I think he will.) This is the last year I think Aramis Ramirez plays 140+ games.
First base has been the year of Canadians (Votto and Morneau) and Pujols the destroyer. Adrian Gonzalez has, like, 30 home runs already and I believe has only 20 RBI. Yeah, his team really sucks. Why does he ever get a pitch to hit? Still not a big believer in Chris Davis. Now is the time to buy-low on Mark Teixeira. If I could move Prince Fielder for him, I would.
Middle infield has been a surprisingly deep position. I'm still grabbing guys like Cristian Guzman, Ben Zobrist, and Coghlan off the waiver wire in a very deep league. Many useful cogs to be had. There are, however, two stars who are killing their owners. Jimmy Rollins has been less valuable to his owners than leaving a blank hole at SS would have been. You read that correctly. His batting average has done more harm than his paltry counting stats have helped. Alexei Ramirez's six stolen bases have made his godawful start to the year a bit more palatable, but I'm giving him until the second week of June, then cutting bait.
Josh Hamilton owners, take heart, if you were diligent you found quality guys off the waiver wire. For god's sakes, Shin Soo Choo was still a free agent as of last week in one of my leagues. This position is deep as all hell. (In my big-money league, I didn't take an OF until the eighth round -- and that was Raul Ibanez -- and didn't take another one until round 11 or 12). If there is any position where I would act quickly to cut a guy, it would be outfield. Guys like Pat Burrell with strange injuries right after they signed new deals? Fuck 'em. Swisher slumping? Oh, well. There is simply a wealth of good outfielders out there.
By now, you pretty much know where your problem areas lie. If the problem is with your middle infield, outfield, or relief corps, some diligent work on the waiver wire will probably dig you out of in a few weeks. If it's at the catcher or first-base position, it's going to take an owner dropping someone they shouldn't, a shallow league, or a trade. And if it's at the starting pitching position or third base ... oh, shit.
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