-- Those of you who guessed right on the Nunez/Meyer closer situation in Florida (I went with Nunez, which looks like the correct pick-up at the moment), congrats. I think Meyer will still have value in a Rafael Soriano kind of way.

-- Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood have been disastrous this year. I actually have Lidge benched at the moment and have gone with Nunez, Frasor, Qualls, and Mo Rivera (we only have four RP slots). I need Lidge to string three lights out appearances in a row before I trust him again. The counter a week after his return is still set on "zero."

-- Told you to pick up Cody Ross.

-- Cole Hamels just strung together two bad starts. You know what that means? Buy low.

-- Yovani Gallardo takes a 1-0 loss after setting a new career high for Ks in a game. Could have really used that win.

-- Take a look at the catcher standings this year. Last time I checked, I think Inge, V-Mart, and Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) were all in the top 3 or top 4. As I mentioned in the draft guide for catchers, you've got to target a position player who is eligible at the position, but either doesn't actually call games or does it sparingly. Good things to tend to happen, and you're probably laughing all the way to the bank this year. As for Sandoval, after a rocky beginning he's living up to his selection as my fantasy sleeper of the year. (Last year was Jorge Cantu.)

-- Why does anybody give Albert Pujols anything to hit?

-- Hanley Ramirez is doing his best to make people forget that they could have drafted Pujols, but I don't think it's going to work

-- There's a pretty good book by Malcolm Gladwell called "Blink" that I recommend reading. Gladwell's a bit long-winded, but the premise is this: the human subconscious has a powerful ability to reach conclusions quickly based on sparse information, and these "hunches" are often more correct than reasoned guesses. Essentially, we tend to outthink ourselves if given enough time. This would explain how guys like J.D. Drew and Carl Pavano end up with huge multi-year deals. In any event, I think fantasy owners actually rely on their hunches a little too much. Look for guys who overperforming or underperforming reasonable projections, and either be a buyer or a seller. Depend on guys to react instinctively to the hot -- or Jimmy Rollins-esque cold -- streak.

-- Speaking of Rollins, I have benched him indefinitely in favor of Ass Dribble Cabrera. It's going to take two weeks of solid work before I let Rollins damage my batting average again.

-- If Raul Ibanez comes back hot, I'd try to sell.

-- Two second half players I'd target: Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche. Heck, they may end up playing for better teams than they're on now.

It looks like Yahoo! will no longer treat its StatTracker service as a fantasy add-on or charge fantasy players extra to use it. Today, I received this email from Yahoo! concerning a 2009 Yahoo! Plus fantasy football league that I had already registered, paying the usual $125 fee:

Dear Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football customer:

This is a message to inform you that we are no longer charging a fee for StatTracker, our live scoring application for Fantasy Football. Our records indicate that you have already purchased a Plus League for the 2009 season.

Because of this change in programming, we are lowering the price of Plus Leagues to $29.95. As a courtesy, your account will be automatically refunded for the full amount of each league purchased at the original $124.99 price. You and your league's other managers may continue to access these Plus Leagues at no additional cost. There is no action required from you.  Please allow 3-4 weeks for the refund to be processed.

Sweet! Not only has the price of Plus leagues been slashed, but, if I'm reading that correctly, my football league's status as a Plus league will be completely free of cost this season. One would presume that this will carry over into the 2010 fantasy baseball season, and that StatTracker -- which updates fantasy stats and league standings in real time -- will be free for all from here on out. No doubt, Yahoo!'s hand was somewhat forced by ESPN's increasingly robust no-charge fantasy service.

Andrew Bailey
Leo Nunez
Jason Frasor
LaTroy Hawkins
CJ Wilson
Chris Sampson
Mike MacDougal
David Aardsma
Scott Downs

What do the above names have in common? You are correct if you guessed that very few, if any, of these guys were drafted in mixed leagues or leagues that don't count holds. Yet, as of today, these guys have earned a total of 59 saves. This number will definitely rise, too,especially in Florida and Toronto. Meet Exhibits A through I as to why I rarely pay for saves on draft day. The only closers I actually drafted this year on my four teams were Mariano Rivera (x2), Huston Street, George Sherrill, Frank Francisco (x2), Kevin Gregg (x2), Chad Qualls, Matt Lindstrom, and Joel Hanrahan (x2). Obviously, Hanrahan was an epic fail this year and Lindstrom was a WHIP killer before his injury and subsequent shelving for four to six weeks. Only Rivera actually cost anything, as all these other guys were drafted after the thirteenth round in 12 teams leagues. Sure, if you drafted K-Rod, Papelbon, and Heath Bell you are probably winning the saves category. But if you spend a high draft pick on one or more of those guys you'd best be prepared to win the category and draft other closers with high picks. In my keeper league, I am in second place in saves with Frank Squared, Kevin Gregg, CJ Wilson, Leo Nunez, LaTroy Hawkins, and Huston Street. The guy who leads saves had Papelbon, Heath Bell, and Kiko Cordero. With the draft picks he spent on those guys, I was able to land decent offensive players like Joey Votto, Pablo Sandoval, Adam LaRoche, and Jorge Cantu. As a result, I am winning the league by a comfortable margin.

In order to succeed at this strategy, you need to be a vigilant gambler, willing to move on a guy early, perhaps before the seeds of doubt have been planted in the established guy. For example, Chris Perez could be a decent pickup in leagues if you have the room. The chances that Kerry Wood makes it through this year without a trip to the DL (remember, he missed six weeks last year with a blister) are slim to none, and slim's putting his boots on.

The Hurler Invitational league has a dedicated group of save chasers, as Leo Nunez has been rostered since draft day. Last night, that strategy has paid off as Leo was anointed after getting the 27th out against the Nationals. So scour, gents, and go find yourself some saves. Remember, closers emerge.

Man, when you got a kid at home whose life can be measured in days instead of months or years, you sure end up watching a lot more MLB Network in the middle of the night. Which is awesome if you own Andre Ethier the night he blasts three home runs. Not so much if you own Matt Kemp when he goes 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. But new baby or no new baby, it seems time for a brand new Bits ...

-- Chris Davis is starting to pick up the pace. Six-for-11 in his last three games with two homers and five runs scored. Of course, he also struck out five times. In the last week, his OBP jumped from a super pathetic .248 to just a really pathetic .271. We'll see if it keeps trending in the right direction.

-- Another Davis -- Doug Davis -- has been solid as a rock this season, carrying a 3.28 ERA but with only three wins to show for it. He's given up three earned runs or less eights times and not gotten the win. I bet Davis isn't taking his position players out for margaritas any time soon.

-- Andrew McCutchen has 18 RBI in 22 games played ... in the leadoff spot ... for the Pirates! Tell me if this sounds crazy: I'm actually considering trading Joey Votto for Cutch in my big-money league. (I just moved Matt Kemp in a deal that got me Chase Utley, and I'd like to be able to replace Kemp's SB numbers ... or at least come close. Meanwhile, I have Justin Morneau at 1B, and I think Juan Rivera makes for a fine DH.) Am I crazy? If so, somebody needs to talk me down from the ledge before I accept the offer.

-- Ever since this blog first launched both Mike and I have written about how underrated Torii Hunter is as a fantasy player. Now that he's ranked #6 overall in the Yahoo game, do you think people are starting to believe us?

Can one day make any difference in fantasy baseball? I had a post written that came to me after watching the Angels-Rockies tilt on Tuesday night stating that Vladimir Guerrero was done and that I am pleased to not own him on any of my four teams. Vladdy has numbers that are Eckstein-esque this year. If you have him on your team, you definitely paid way too much for him after he missed over a month with torn pectoral muscles. I learned from Rex Hudler during Tuesday's broadcast that 30 of Vlad's 36 hits for the year were singles. His body doesn't look significantly different than it has in the past, so what gives? Is it just the injury or is someting else going on? A closer look is in order.

Looking at batted ball data, a few things jump out at me. First, the most obvious is the ridiculously low 2.4 HR/FB rate, down from 16.1 last year. To give you some perspective, Eckstein's career HR/FB is 2.7. Like Geovany Soto, this rate is due to rise and come back to the norm. His line drive rate is down a bit and his fly ball rate up a bit, but nothing to explain a dropoff of this magnitude. The only pitch he seems to be hitting with any success is a slider and even fastballs have consistently been effective against him. In past years, the numbers suggest he has feasted on spilt fingered fastballs while this year that pitch has been the most successful against him. His plate discipline has been the worst in his career. In his prime, 30-35% of everything he swung at was out of the strike zone, this year sees that number rise to 51%.

So he is swinging at every other pitch and 65% of everything thrown to him. Considering he was injured earlier this season and may not be fully healed, could he be pressing and stepping up an already aggressive approach? Could be.

Yesterday, I was going to suggest running away from this hot mess as quickly as possible. Tonight, he had a double, home run, and three RBI. If you are inclined to sell him, tonight was a great opportunity for you to shop him and hope another owner is willing to offer something more in line with the numbers generated in his past. However, some of those numbers say 'buy low'. How low is up to you, but it is certainly something to consider. If those numbers do revert back to the mean, you want to be there for it. Would I trade Adam Lind or Adam Jones for him? No way. Would I trade Corey Hart or Jay Bruce for him? I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

-- While I'm dominating both leagues I'm participating in, it's a long year, and with guys like Raul Ibanez x 2, Joey Votto x 2, Jose Reyes, Brade Lidge, Aramis Ramirez, and Ass Dribble Cabrera sitting on my DL, I've been hoping for a bit of a boost. Well, Votto returns today! I think it's 50/50 that he hits a home run on every pitch ... or gets dizzy and begins eating his batting helmet.

-- I'm calling it now: this is a lost season for Reyes and Aramis. Any setbacks for Grady Sizemore, I'll add him to the list. On the pitching front, I expect nothing from Brandon Webb.

-- I'd trade David Ortiz right now. He's made some adjustments at the plate, but in watching him, the bad speed still isn't there. He's basically taking a shorter route to the ball. When the pitchers make their own adjustments, I see this mini-surge ending.

-- Not a big believer in Adam Kennedy, but I guess you ride the hot bat when you can. Jose Guillen is having a decent few weeks, too. Keep an eye on both of them in deep leagues.

-- Joe Mauer: good chance to bat .375-.400 'cause he's always one more random injury away from a 390 at-bat year.

-- Ben Zobrist is cooling off a bit, but what the heck. Keep the AL leader in OPS who's SS, 2B, and OF eligible just to see if he can maybe retain some value. Just maybe.

-- Good to see Verlander return to form.

-- Could the Phillies closer situation be any more of a roller coaster? I was ecstatic when I could put Madson in and stash Lidge away, then I was ecstatic to get rid of Madson, and now I'm ... what am I?  I believe the phrase is scared shitless.

-- I'm still holding Jason Frasor.

-- Congratulations to our very own Bob Taylor, who became the proud papa of a second daughter in the last few days. Our thoughts are with you and your family.

Does Kyle Blanks know what decade this is? 'Cause he is seriously rockin' the 'fro in his Yahoo player photo.

And it looks just as good on the field.

I'm digging it. He's got a way to go to catch Oscar Gamble, but the dude is only 22 years old. Plenty of time.

BTW, I picked Blanks up in three leagues. One because it's a 10-team, NL-only league and the other two because I'm sucking hind tit and getting really desperate. Blanks is listed as a first baseman, but don't let that fool you. He's playing in the outfield and will soon have dual eligibility. So that's nice.

Alright, kids, it's not even the All-Star break and jumping onto this site makes me feel like I walked into a Sammy Sosa Foundation meeting. The level of doom and gloom here about one guy's trip to the disabled list makes me want to break out into John Belushi. Hell, I've been carrying Manny, Votto, and Quentin in my money league and am still in the hunt, so if I can do it, you can too. But you don't want to hear about my teams, so I'll just tell you whom to target if you still give a damn about competing for the next 95+ games of this season. There's plenty of time for football, and who gives a rat's ass what Brett Farvre does this year?  Can somebody just run him over with a tractor already?

If you are stuck in the muck, the consensus seems that you will have to trade your best pitching, assuming you have any, for the best hitting you can muster. Leagues with innings limits will kick you in the kidney, devaluing starters with each passing day. However, there is some hope beyond that if you can think about taking some risks in the hope that some will pay off. Think about veterans who have underperformed in the first half, guys playing for contracts next year and whose salary makes them unmoveable, and guys who you know are better than their superficial numbers have shown to date. A couple of these guys might salvage your season. Here's a few to get you started:

Aubrey Huff (BAL, 1B) -- He is a notorious second half hitter, may not fit into the Orioles' long term plans and MacPhail can make him available. He didn't do much a couple years ago when he was the big deadline move (From Tampa to Houston) but he can hit and man a corner spot. Move on him if you can.

Adrian Beltre (SEA, 3B) -- He's been pretty craptastic so far but has heated up somewhat in June (.362, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 10 runs). He is playing for a contract this offseason and is one of the most consistent players in terms of numbers produced over the last few years. I've even tried to buy him with Votto.

Alexei Ramirez (CHI-A, SS) -- So far, June has shown him heating up a bit, enough to show signs of life. He doesn't look completely lost any more, which is improvement. I just have a hunch (maybe because I have him on two teams) that his best baseball is ahead of him this year. Although people gave up on him earlier this year, that was the exact wrong thing to do because he will get hot, and you want to be there for that.

Geovany Soto (CHI-N, C) -- Yes, he was awful just a few weeks ago,and I too thought he may be toast. However, a HR today makes three in June, and this gives me hope that his 5.7 HR/FB rate (it was 14.7 last year) will go back up and when Wrigley heats up, balls fly out of it. Get yourself some Geo.

So, don't stick your head in the oven because a 37-year-old's age caught up with him. Tape up your groin, build a bridge, get over it, and get back up the mountain. Seasons are marathons, not sprints.

I worked for hours on an article discussing why Billy Beane's signing of Eric Chavez instead of Miguel Tejada was a colossal mistake. Not just in hindsight, but for reasons that were apparent at the time.  It whirled out comparisons of fairly normal stats like OPS, even the rudimentary entry-level fodder like home runs, batting average, etc., and looked at the more esoteric and accurate numbers like VORP and eQa (slight advantage to Tejada in the former pre-move-from-Oakland, slight advantage to Chavez in the latter).

Unfortunately, due to an annoying computer snafu, the article has been lost. After due consideration, I don't love any of you enough to reconstruct it. So I'll summarize.

Billy Beane made a mistake that no competent owner of any fantasy keeper team would ever make. I'm not going to rebuild the statistical comparison, so take my word for it: Chavez batted left-handed, was slightly better in slightly more statistical categories, but the two were pretty darned close. If there's a big advantage to be found anywhere, it would be in batting average, which we all know can be a complete mirage. Tejada, at the time, was about 18 months older, but both were entering their final year. The A's won, IIRC, 96 games, and of course did nothing in the playoffs.

SIDETRACKED:

The A's seem a bit cursed, don't they? Not so much as the San Francisco Giants, their brethren across the Bay, who have never won a World Series in San Francisco despite an endless stream of Hall of Fame talent, but they only won one championship with near-All Star rosters in the late eighties and early nineties, and whether it was Jeremy Giambi forgetting to slide, idiots wandering off third, or the Yankees brushing them aside, didn't do much with the Mulder/Hudson/Zito teams, either.

BACK ON TRACK:

Beane basically went for it. He didn't trade either, despite the fact that he could have gotten a pretty good return, and let Tejada walk at the end of the year. I'd say that was mistake number one. Beane should have realized that the playoffs are a crapshoot and done what he could to maximize his return. How can you just let a player like Tejada walk, no matter how well your team is doing that year? But, at least it's understandable.

What isn't understandable is his failure to understand the concept of position scarcity. Sure, Bobby Crosby was waiting in the wings to replace Tejada -- how well did that work out? -- but the A's had Mark Teahen, who they let go, in their system who might have been able to replace Chavez. Although it was completely possible that they could have traded Chavez for a bunch of players, including a third baseman. Every fantasy owner knows that if you have two players of roughly comparable value, but one plays a corner infield position, and the other is a shortstop, you keep the shortstop!

I've always wondered if the real reason Beane handled the situation the way he did wasn't due to performance on the field or position scarcity analysis, but if he figured Tejada was on drugs, or was substantially older than he was. Even though both of those are true, it still turned out to be one of the worst mistakes of his tenure, and it is one that I questioned not just now, but when it happened.

-- I, too, have the trifecta of Reyes, Votto, and Ibanez on my DL in my "big money" league. Ass Dribble and Brad Lidge are keeping them company. Ugh. I'm hoping this is a blip in the radar, but I'm thinking the clock just struck zero on Raul Ibanez.

-- Someone just asked me yesterday if I would trade Raul Ibanez for Matt Kemp. I said "no," (of course, I now think differently), and here's why: I don't trust Joe Torre. I have the horrible, niggling suspicion as a Dodger fan that when Manny comes back, we're going to see a four-man outfield. That's right, I think Juan Pierre -- I can't believe I'm typing this -- is going to be stealing at-bats all over the place. I also think Matt Kemp is stuck in the 7/8/9 position for the rest of the year. If Torre hasn't convinced by now that Loney and Martin are not only worse hitters than Kemp, they're two of the worst regulars at their positions thus far this season, nothing will convince him.

-- Is it just me, or is basically the entire Toronto Blu Jays pitching staff on the DL?

-- Frasor was named the closer in Downs's absence. B.J. Ryan did nothing to change that with an awful outing yesterday.

--At this point in the season, unless you are in a shallow league or a league with dumb owners, you are typically going to be reacting rather than acting. Maybe you'll target the odd player who's likely to be called up, but generally you'll be compensating for injuries, cutting guys who you've given up on, etc. Fantasy advice becomes less and less useful as the season wears on, as the possibility for proactive moves become few and far between.

-- I don't know if there is a single player I wouldn't give up for Mark Teixeira not named Albert Pujols. Mark's a second half player, and he's the only player I think has a legitimate shot of 50 home runs this year due to the combination of lineup protection and playing in Coors Field East. Everyone else who might be on pace either has injury woes, is overperforming their career norms, or is facing the possibility of being walked a zillion times from here on out.

-- My Ben Zobrist tattoo looks quite nice, thank you.

-- Javier Vazquez: so frustrating to own. Dominant, but constantly has the one bad inning. I knew Micah Owings was going to take him deep and ruin yesterday's outing. I just knew it.